[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Sean, at 15/1500 UTC, is
near 17.7N 47.1W. Sean is moving toward the WNW, or
290 degrees, 09 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1010 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots
with gusts to 35 knots. Expect strong E-to-SE winds, and rough
seas, within 19N45W to 20N46W to 19N47W to 18N47W to 17N45W
to 19N45W. Precipitation: isolated strong in clusters is from
07N to 23N between 40W and 56W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Invest-AL94: A 1011 mb low pressure center is near
10N35W. The marine forecast that is associated with this feature
consists of: a possible tropical cyclone to form; a 1009 mb low
pressure center near 11N35W; E winds from 25 knots to 35 knots, and
sea heights building to 9 feet, within 13N37W to 13N38W to 12N39W to
11N39W to 11N37W to 11N36W to 13N37W. Expect also: strong winds, and
moderate to rough seas, within 16N35W to 16N40W to 13N40W to 11N39W
to 10N37W to 11N35W to 16N35W. The overall environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development. The system
has become comparatively less organized since yesterday. It is
likely still for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form
during the next few days. The weather system is forecast to move
toward the west or the west-northwest, through the central and
western sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
More information about this system, including gale warnings,
can be found in the High Seas Forecasts that are issued by
the National Weather Service. This system has a medium chance of
development during the next 48 hours. Winds to at least near-gale
force are anticipated near this low pressure system. Rough seas are
forecast to build by Monday morning.

Please, refer to the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

Central Atlantic Ocean Large Swell Event:

A cold front extends from 31N36W to 25N48W. A surface trough
continues from 25N48W to 22N60W. Fresh and faster winds are to
the north of the line that is from 31N27W 27N38W. Mostly fresh
to some strong southerly winds are to the north of the line
that is from 31N54W 26N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side
of the frontal boundary. Rough seas are to the north of the
line that passes through 31N30W 25N43W 31N55W. Mostly moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. An exception
is for slight seas that are to the west of the line 24N70W
31N75W; and from 22N southward between 50W and 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: the tropical
wave is moving through the area of precipitation that also is
associated with the monsoon trough. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 420 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough between 20W and the 27W/28W tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 12N16W, to 10N20W, to the 1011 mb INVEST-AL94 low pressure
center, to 10N38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 420 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough between 20W and the 27W/28W tropical wave. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 02N to 07N from 25W
eastward, from 12N to 19N from 30W eastward, and in the rest
of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-to-SW oriented cold front is passing through central
Florida, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. A surface trough
is about 140 nm to the south and southeast of the cold front.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from the front and the
surface trough southward from 90W westward.

Moderate seas are to the south of the U.S.A. Gulf coast between
the Florida Big Bend and SE Louisiana, and elsewhere from 90W
westward. Slight seas are in the rest of the area. Fresh to
strong winds are in the western half of the area. Moderate
to fresh winds are in the eastern half of the area.

A cold front extends from near Bradenton, Florida to
just south of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are active south
of the front over the far southwest Gulf. The front will move
southeast of the Gulf tonight followed by fresh winds and rough
seas. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through mid
week
as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1014 mb high pressure center is in SE Cuba. A surface ridge
is along 20N/21N, from 60W toward NW Cuba.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in the water
vapor imagery, from 15N southward from 80W eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond
southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N in eastern
Honduras southward from 72W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, for the period that
ended at 15/1200 UTC, for Guadeloupe was 0.21.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, span the area.

Gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas will persist
through tonight. Winds and seas will increase over the
far northwest Caribbean starting tonight following a cold
front moving through the Yucatan Channel. The front will
stall from central Cuba to Belize Mon, and dissipate into
mid week. Fresh NE winds and moderate wave heights will
persist over the northwest Caribbean through late Wed as
high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, there
is a high chance that a tropical depression or storm will
develop over the Atlantic during the next several days
possibly bringing winds to at least near-gale force and
rough seas to the waters east of the Leeward Islands by
late Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about:
T.D. Sean, and a Gale-Force Wind Warning that is associated
with the INVEST-AL94, for 16/1200 UTC. Moderate or slower
winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean, away from the
three Special Features, and away from the NW Atlantic Ocean
frontal boundaries.

A first NW Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N67W,
becoming a surface trough near 27N73W, beyond the central
Bahamas. A second cold front is about 330 nm to the northwest
of the first frontal boundary. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south and
the southeast of the first cold front between 67W and 75W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N northward from 60W
westward. Fresh to strong W and SW winds, and moderate seas,
are between 64W and the Bahamas. Rough seas are from 31N
northward, to the northwest of the first frontal boundary.

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center
that is near 32N20W, to 24N34W.

Expect fresh winds over waters north of 30N and west of 70W
today associated with a pair of frontal boundaries that are
moving across the area. The second front will move E through
the weekend, slow down and weaken from Bermuda to central
Cuba by early Tue, then stall and dissipate from 31N60W
through eastern Cuba by mid week.

$$
mt/ec
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