[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Sean is centered near 17.4N 46.2W at 15/0900
UTC or 960 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are
currently 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60
nm of the center. Weakening is forecast and Sean is forecast to
become a remnant low later today or tonight, and then dissipate
by late Monday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sean
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94) Gale Warning: An area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 09N33W is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next
couple of days while the system moves westward or west-
northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This
system has a high chance of development within 48 hours. In
anticipation of this system developing, a gale warning has been
issued. Seas will build to over 12 ft by Mon morning, when the
system is centered in the vicinity of 10N37W. Additional
information on this system, including the gale warning, can be
found in the High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and in the Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov

Central Atlantic Large Swell: A cold front extends from 31N38W to
27N48W, then becomes stationary to 25N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and within 120 nm SE of the cold front. Strong
to near gale force SW winds are occurring within 360 nm east of
the cold front, north of 27N. Seas of 12 to 16 ft are currently
affecting waters north of 27N between 38W and 47W. Seas of 12 ft
or greater will continue to affect the waters north of 27N between
35W and 47W through today before subsiding by this evening.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 26W
from 03N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N-17N between 22W-30W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N17W to
invest AL94 to 09N38W. Scattered moderate convection is between
the coast of Africa and 20W from 03N to 15N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the eastern Florida Panhandle near
29N83W to 22N98W. Fresh northerly winds are NW of the front. A
pre-frontal surface trough extends from Key Largo, FL to 23N92W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough.
Additional moderate convection prevails near the coast of
southern Mexico near Veracruz. Gentle winds are over the SE Gulf,
south of 26N and east of 90W, where seas are 1 to 3 ft. In the
western Gulf, fresh northerly winds are occurring also to the
south of the front, extending to 20N. Seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail
over the western Gulf, while 3 to 4 ft seas prevail over the NE
Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving SE across
the basin through the weekend and early week with fresh winds and
rough seas. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through
mid week as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the
wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep-layered ridging extends across the Caribbean. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted along the east Pacific
monsoon trough and the Colombian coast, mainly south of 12N.
Otherwise, the rest of the basin remains quiet. The latest ASCAT
satellite data depicts gentle to moderate trade winds across the
basin. Seas range from 2 to 4 ft across most of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas will
persist through tonight. Winds and seas will increase over the
far northwest Caribbean starting tonight following a cold front
moving through the Yucatan Channel. The front will stall from
central Cuba to Belize Mon, and dissipate into mid week. Fresh NE
winds and moderate wave heights will persist over the northwest
Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over the area.
Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression
or storm will develop over the Atlantic during the next several
days, possibly bringing winds to gale force and very rough seas to
the waters east of the Leeward Islands by late Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on T.D. Sean, the Gale
Warning for AL94, and the large swell area north of 27N between
35W and 48W.

A weak cold front extends from 31N72W to 28N73W, then a trough
continues to 25N80W. Fresh to strong W winds and 6 to 9 ft seas
prevail W of the front. Over the western Atlantic, winds are
generally moderate or stronger north of 23N and west of 65W.
Winds are light to gentle elsewhere west of 50W.

Winds are fresh or stronger within about 480 nm east of the
special features cold front, mainly north of 24N and west of 30W.
Seas of 8 ft or greater in association with the frontal system
still extend as far west as 57W and as far south as 23N. Winds
are mostly gentle north of 20N and east of 30W due to ridging.

For the forecast W of 55W, expect fresh to strong winds over
waters north of 30N and west of 70W today associated with a pair
of frontal boundaries that are moving across the area. A
reinforcing trough will maintain fresh NW winds off northeast
Florida Mon. The second front will move E through the weekend,
slow down and weaken from Bermuda to central Cuba by early Tue,
then stall and dissipate from 31N60W through eastern Cuba by mid
week.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net