[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Sean is centered near 14.3N 40.5W at 13/0900 UTC
or 960 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 36W
and 41W. Peak seas are around 15 ft, with the 12 ft seas
extending outward 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm in the SE
quadrant, and 75 nm in the NW quadrant. A turn toward the
northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next few days. Gradual weakening is expected during
the next few days, and Sean is forecast to degenerate to a post-
tropical remnant low later this weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale force 997 mb low pressure is
centered just N of the area near 32N69W. A cold front extends SW
from the low to 30N81W. A warm front extends SE from the low to
26N55W. Gale force winds are noted ahead of the cold front mainly
N of 29N and W of 67W. Seas in the area are likely 8 to 12 ft.
The low and cold front will move eastward, spreading gale winds
across the Atlantic waters N of 27N through the weekend. Seas of
12 to 18 ft are expected within the gale force wind area, peaking
by this afternoon through Sat night north of 27.5N between 40W
and 62W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pres (AL94) is along
the wave near 09N26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along the southern half of the wave axis from
02N to 11N between 25W to 30W. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development of this system
by early next week. A tropical depression could form by the middle
of next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 10 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
This system has a low chance of development within the next 48
hours and a medium chance within the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N18W to AL94 to 10N31W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted S of the trough and E of 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1007 mb low over the Florida Panhandle and associated
stationary front extending to 26N87W. A surface trough continues
from 25N88W to 22N95W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted in the SE Gulf. Recent ASCAT satellite data shows winds are
moderate or weaker across most of the basin. Seas are 3-4 ft in
the western Gulf and 4-7 ft in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the low and associated stationary front will
continue weakening today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the SE Gulf will also move E of the area today also. High pressure
across the Atlantic will build modestly westward into the eastern
Gulf through early Sat, before the next cold front moves into the
NW Gulf Sat morning and across the entire basin by Sun evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper level ridging over the Caribbean is bringing fairly
benign conditions over the area, with little to no precipitation
currently noted across the basin. Recent ASCAT data shows that
winds are mostly moderate across the basin, except for fresh in
the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong SE winds are likely
occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2 to 5 ft east of 82W,
except 4 to 6 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are likely
5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate
today and prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong SE to S winds in
the Gulf of Honduras will continue through tonight. A cold front
will sink S-SE across the western Atlantic over the weekend
maintaining the weak trade wind flow across the basin and support
moderate to fresh northerly winds in the NW Caribbean Mon and Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning over the western Atlantic and T.S. Sean. Please read the
Tropical Waves section for details on AL94.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring south
of the gale-frontal system/low in the western Atlantic, north of
26N and west of 60W. To the east, a cold front extends from
31N38W to 27N46W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within
250 nm S of the front. A surface ridge extends from 1014 mb high
pressure near 25N31W. Gentle winds with little to no precipitation
is near the surface ridge.

Areas of fresh to strong winds and seas over 8 ft include
Tropical Storm Sean, as well as the area in the western Atlantic
north of 27N between 64W and 76W. Moderate to fresh winds and 5
to 7 ft seas prevail north of 24N between 30W and 50W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, see the Special Features section above.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net