[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130456
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Sean is centered near 14.1N 39.5W at 13/0300 UTC
or 905 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant 300 nm SE quadrant. Similar convection is noted
from 08.5N to 11N between 39W and 47W. Peak seas are around 15
ft, with the 12 ft seas extending outward 105 nm in the NE
quadrant, 90 nm in the SE quadrant, and 75 nm in the NW quadrant.
A general northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next few days, along with gradual weakening.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale force 1001 mb low pressure is
centered just N of the area near 32N72W. As of 0300 UTC, a
stationary front extends WSW from the low to St. Augustine, FL. A
warm front extends SE from the low to 29N62W. An ASCAT satellite
data pass from 13/0128 UTC shows near-gale to gale force winds
occurring along the fronts and near the low pressure, mainly
north of 29N between 70W and 75W. Seas in the area are likely 9
to 12 ft. The low center will move eastward, spreading gales of
35-40 kt across the waters north of 27.5N between 55W and 67W
Fri. Fri night, the gales will be north of 27.5N between 48W and
61W. Sat, the gales will be north of 28N between 42W and 52W
before the gales end over the area by Sat night. Seas of 12 to 17
ft are expected within the gale force wind area, peaking Fri
afternoon through Sat night north of 27.5N between 40W and 62W.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 25W
from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pres (AL94)
is along the wave near 08N25W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted along the southern portion of the wave
axis from 01N to 05N between 22.5W to 29W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen on the northern side of the low from 09N to
11N between 22.5W and 27.5W. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development of this system
early next week, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of the week while moving westward or west-northwestward at
about 10 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This
system has a low chance of development within the next 48 hours
and a medium chance within the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W to AL94 to 10.5N31W. The monsoon trough continues from
11N41W to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 12N54W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to
11N between 11W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 11N to 13.5N between 53W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1006 mb low is located near the Florida Big Bend coast near
30N84W. A stationary front curved from the low to 29N83W to
26N86W. A surface trough continues from 26N86W to 20N94W. Another
surface trough extends W from the low to 30N87W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is off the SW coast of Florida
from 24.5N to 27N and east of 85.5W. Another cluster of moderate
showers is just north of the Yucatan Peninsula from 21.5N to 23N
between 89W and 90W. Recent ASCAT satellite data shows winds are
moderate or weaker across most of the basin. Seas are 3-4 ft in
the western Gulf and 4-7 ft in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the low over the Florida Panhandle and front
over the E Gulf will move to W Atlantic waters tonight. Scattered
thunderstorms in the SE Gulf will also move E of the area. High
pressure across the Atlantic will build modestly westward into the
eastern Gulf Fri through early Sat, before the next cold front
moves into the NW Gulf Sat morning and across the entire basin by
Sun evening. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas 6 to 8 ft will
follow the next front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper level ridging over the Caribbean is bringing fairly
benign conditions over the area, with little to no precipitation
currently seen across the basin. Recent ASCAT data shows that
winds are mostly moderate across the basin, except for fresh in
the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong SE winds are likely
occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2 to 5 ft east of 82W,
except 4 to 6 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are likely
5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate
early Fri and prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong SE to S winds
in the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean will continue through Fri
night. A cold front will sink S-SE across the western Atlantic
over the weekend maintaining the weak trade wind flow across the
basin and support moderate to fresh northerly winds in the NW
Caribbean Mon and Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning over the western Atlantic and T.S. Sean. Please read the
Tropical Waves section for details on AL94.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring south
of the frontal system and low in the western Atlantic, north of
26N and west of 66W. A cold front extends from 31N40W to 28N45W,
then transitions to a stationary front from that point to 26N52W
to 29N62W and a warm front from 29N62W to 31N67W. Scattered
showers are within 180 nm either side of the stationary and warm
fronts. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous moderate
isolated strong convection within 360 nm SE of the cold front,
from 25N to 31N between 32.5W and 44W. A surface ridge extends
from 1016 mb high pressure near 25N30.5W to 1014 mb high pressure
near 23N64W to the central Bahamas. Gentle winds with little to no
precipitation is near the surface ridge.

Areas of winds over 25 kt and seas over 8 ft include Tropical
Storm Sean as well as the area in the western Atlantic north of
28N between 65W and 81W. Fresh winds and seas over 6 ft are mainly
north of 27N in this western Atlantic area. Moderate to fresh
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail north of 24N between 30W and 50W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, see the Special Features section above.

$$
Hagen
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