[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system is noted
across northern Florida. A a 1001 mb low pres off the NE Florida
coast near 31N80W and a 1001 mb low pres right off the Apalachicola
coast in the NE Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front stretches
between these two lows, a cold front extends SW off the Gulf of
Mexico low to 24N90W. Numerous strong convection is noted in the
Atlantic, N of 27.5N and W of 69W. A line of strong thunderstorms
are also off the SW Florida coast from 24N to 27N and W of 84W. In
the Atlantic, strong winds prevail off the Florida coast to near
72W with gale-force winds occurring south of the front, N of 30.5N
between 74W and 76W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft, N of 28N between 73W and
80W. Winds are beginning to diminish over the Gulf, with moderate
to fresh winds noted off the west coast. Seas are still around 8
ft in the NE Gulf waters. As this frontal system propagates east
away from Florida, the area of gale-force winds will increase
across the northern offshore waters and the high seas. Seas are
expected to build to near 17 ft by Fri evening near the strongest
winds. The gale-force winds will end by Sat evening, with a large
area of strong winds continuing through Sun. Seas will diminish by
Mon. Seas in the Gulf will drop below 8 ft by tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

Tropical Storm Sean: Tropical Storm Sean is centered near 13.8N
38.2W at 12/2100 UTC or 830 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving
NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted west of
the sheared storm, from 13N to 17N between 34W and 39W. Peak seas
are around 14 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending 105 nm in the NE
quadrant, 75 nm in the SE quadrant, and 75 nm in the NW quadrant.
Sean is expected to move NW or WNW during the next few days.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Tropical Storm Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 24W from
17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pres (AL94) is
along the wave near 09N24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted near and north of the low from 09N to 12N
between 23W and 26W. While environmental conditions are currently
only marginally favorable for slow development over the next
couple of days, they are forecast to become more favorable by
early next week. A tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week as this system moves generally westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low
chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in
the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 13N17W to AL94 to 11N30W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to
10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 16N
between 15W and 33W and from 10N to 14N between 41W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front continues to move southeast across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Winds are beginning to diminish around this system.
Moderate W to NW winds are noted north of the front and the 1001
mb low pres near Apalachicola, Florida with moderate to fresh SW
winds ahead of it. Across the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, gentle
to locally moderate winds are noted in the northern basin with
light to gentle winds in the SW Gulf. Seas are still 6 to 8 ft in
the eastern Gulf with 2 to 4 ft in the western portions of the
basin.

For the forecast, the low over the Florida Panhandle and
associated cold front will move to W Atlantic waters tonight. The
S to SW fresh winds over the SE Gulf will diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms in the
SE Gulf will also move E of the area. High pressure across the
Atlantic will build modestly westward into the eastern Gulf Fri
through early Sat, before the next cold front moves into the NW
Gulf Sat morning and across the entire basin by Sun evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper level ridging over the Caribbean is bringing fairly
benign conditions over the area. Scattered showers are noted in
the SW basin along the East Pacific monsoon trough, from 09N to
11N between 75W and 83W. Fresh to strong winds are noted off the
NE Honduras coast, with moderate to fresh winds occurring across
the NW Caribbean. This is giving way to 4 to 7 ft seas. Moderate
to fresh winds are also noted off the NW Colombia and Venezuela
coast. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail over the
rest of the basin. Moderate seas are noted over the central and
eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate
early Fri and prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong SE to S winds
in the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean will continue through Fri
night. A cold front will sink S-SE across the western Atlantic
over the weekend and act to maintain the weak trade wind flow
across the basin and support moderate to fresh northerly winds in
the NW Caribbean Mon and Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for the gale warning over
the SW N Atlantic, T.S. Sean, and the Tropical Waves section for
AL94.

Outside of the complex frontal frontal system in the SW N
Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the rest of the
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos northward to 27N and W of 67W. Seas
are up to 4 ft in this region.

In the central Atlantic, a stationary front is draped from 31N42W
to 26N54W to 31N71W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
most of the front within 100 nm. Moderate to locally fresh W to
NW winds are noted north of this front between 44W and 54W.
Moderate SW winds are ahead of the front N of 26N and W of 38W.
Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of this system, gentle winds prevail
to the ITCZ with seas 4 to 6 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, another stationary front is draped from
31N25W to 31N38W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
along this front within 150 nm of it. Moderate SW winds are ahead
of the front. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across
this portion of the Atlantic with seas ranging 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure over the Florida
Panhandle will emerge across the W Atlc tonight. This will continue
to support strong to near gale force winds over the NE and
central Florida offshore waters through tonight as a cold front
associated with the low moves across the area. Gale force winds
will also develop early tonight across the northern offshore
waters N of 30N just SE of the low and ahead of the front. Gale
force winds will then continue to affect the offshore waters N of
28N as the cold front extend from 31N65W to 28N72W Fri morning.
Winds will diminish below gale-force early Sat as the front exit
the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as rough
seas are expected with this frontal system.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net