[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...NE Gulf of Mexico/Western Atlantic Ocean
Gale-force Wind Warning...

A 1002 mb low pressure center is near 30N85W, in the Florida
Big Bend. A cold front extends southwestward from the low
pressure center, to 25N91W. A surface trough continues from
25N91W to the coast of Mexico near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico along 95W/96W. A warm front extends from
the 1002 mb low pressure center to 32N78W in the Atlantic
Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 180 nm to
the south/southeast/east of the Gulf of Mexico frontal
boundary, from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate is from 26N
southward from 90W westward. Scattered strong is in the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 70W westward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N
northward from 70W westward. Expect fresh to strong winds
in the Atlantic Ocean, during the next 12 hours or so,
from 28N northward between 76W and 81W. Expect W gale-force
winds, and rough seas, by tonight, 30.5N to 31N between
72W and 74W. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and
rough seas, in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that
is from 28N northward from 68W westward. Expect in the Gulf
of Mexico: from 26N northward between 82W and 88W strong to
near gale-force SW to W winds, and rough seas, during the
next 12 hours or so. The conditions will start to improve
tonight.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST,
that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...TROPICAL STORM SEAN...

The center of Tropical Storm Sean, at 12/1500 UTC, is near
13.1N 37.2W. Sean is moving toward the NW, or 305 degrees,
09 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to
45 knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is:
within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are:
within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 12 feet. Expect
also: E winds from 20 knots to 33 knots, and sea heights
from 8 feet to 11 feet, within 15N35W to 17N38W to 15N40W
to 13N41W to 11N39W to 12N35W to 15N35W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
480 nm of the center in the W semicircle, and within
360 nm of the center in the E semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Tropical Storm Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure
center (INVEST AL94) is along the tropical wave near 09.5N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
16N southward from 31W eastward. It is possible that the
environmental conditions may support some slow development of
this system during the next several days. The weather system
is forecast to move generally westward through the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Please, refer to the website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border
areas of Senegal and The Gambia, to the INVEST-AL94 1010 mb
low pressure center, to 10N30W. The monsoon trough also is
along 10N40W 08N45W. The ITCZ is along 08N45W 08N49W 10N56W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 20N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about
1002 mb low pressure center, the winds, and the sea heights.

Rough seas are in the NE corner of the area, off the coasts
of the Florida Big Bend and the Florida Panhandle. Mostly
moderate to some rough seas are elsewhere in most of the
northern half of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the SW corner
of the area. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico.

A 1002 mb low over the Florida Panhandle and associated cold
front extending to the central Gulf will move to W Atlantic
waters this afternoon and S to SW fresh to strong winds over
the E Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds this
afeternoon. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms will
also move E of the NE basin. High pressure across the Atlantic
will build modestly westward into the eastern Gulf Fri through
early Sat, before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf
Sat morning and across the entire basin by Sun evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers much of the
Caribbean Sea, except for the areas that are about 160 nm
to the south of the Greater Antilles. Broad upper level
anticyclonic wind flow is moving through the area.

Strong SE winds are in the NW corner of the area.
Fresh to moderate SE winds are in the central one-third
of the area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.
Moderate seas are nearly everywhere from 80W eastward, and
in the NW corner of the area. Slight seas are in the rest
of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 74W westward,
beyond Costa Rica/Nicaragua, and into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
14N southward from 74W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that
ended at 12/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are:
0.17 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

Moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate early Fri
and prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong SE to S winds in the
Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean will continue through Fri
night. A cold front will sink S-SE across the western Atlantic
over the weekend and act to maintain the weak trade wind flow
across the basin and support moderate to fresh northerly winds
in the NW Caribbean Mon and Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about
Tropical Storm Sean. Please, read the Tropical Waves section,
for details about the INVEST-AL94 low pressure center and
tropical wave. Please, read the Special Features section, for
details about the gale-force winds and the frontal boundaries,
for the area that is from the Gulf of Mexico and moving into
that part oof the Atlantic Ocean that is to the east of
Florida.

A cold front/stationary front covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 25N northward between 25W and 70W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
20N northward from 20W westward.

Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, cover much of
the Atlantic Ocean, away from Tropical Storm Sean, away from
the INVEST-AL94, and away from the gale-force winds of the
NW Atlantic Ocean that is to the east of Florida.

Low pressure of 1002 mb over the Florida Panhandle will emerge
across the W Atlc this afternoon, and will continue to support
strong to near gale force winds over the NE and central
Florida offshore waters through this evening as a cold front
associated with the low moves across the area. Gale force winds
will develop this evening across the northern offshore waters
N of 30N just SE of the low and ahead of the front. Gale force
winds will then continue to affect the offshore waters N of 28N
as the cold front extend from 31N65W to 28N72W Fri morning.
Gale force winds will diminish early Sat as the front exit the
area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms and high seas are
expected with this frontal system.

$$
mt
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