[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110451
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Oct 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

N Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic Gale Warning: As of 0300 UTC, a
1003 mb low pressure is located near 23N96W in the SW Gulf of
Mexico. A stationary front extends from SW Florida to 24N87W,
where it transitions into a warm front that continues to the
aforementioned low. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to locally strong winds north of 21N and west of 87W. Seas
in these waters are 3-5 ft. The front and low pres will lift
northward tonight through Wed, reaching along 28N. The low pres is
expected to strengthen along the front early Wed over the NW
Gulf, and move eastward across the N central and NE Gulf through
Wed evening, then inland across N Florida Wed night. Scattered to
numerous strong thunderstorms and strong to gale force winds will
accompany this low pressure system and frontal boundary across the
northern Gulf late tonight through Wed night. Seas will peak near
11 ft Wed night. The low will then emerge across the W Atlc early
Thu, bringing strong to gale force winds east of northern and
central Florida Thu night, then move E of 72W Thu night, and
across the NE waters Fri and Fri night. Scattered thunderstorms
with large and confused seas are expected to accompany this low
pressure system. Seas will peak near 15 ft Fri. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is near 9.7N 32.0W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008
mb. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
from 07N to 15N and between 28W and 38W. Peak seas near the center
are up to 12 ft. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
forecast during the next few days. Some strengthening is possible
during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Depression Nineteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic
along 19W, south of 17N. The wave is moving westward at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen on
satellite imagery from 07N to 14N and east of 23W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 87W,
south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave extends across
Honduras and western Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific waters. A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the
northern portion of the wave, affecting the Bay Islands and the
northern coast of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N30W and to
10N45W. The ITCZ extends from 10N45W to 12N53W. A few showers are
present near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning in the northern Gulf.

A weak high pressure centered in the Big Bend area of Florida
dominates the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the
influence associated with the low pressure in the SW Gulf,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Straits of
Florida to offshore of the NW Yucatan Peninsula to 1003 mb low
pressure near 23N94.5W. The front and low pres will lift northward
tonight through Wed, reaching along 28N. The low pres is expected
to strengthen along the front early Wed over the NW Gulf, and
move eastward across the N central and NE Gulf through Wed
evening, then inland across N Florida Wed night. Scattered to
numerous strong thunderstorms and strong to gale force winds will
accompany this low pressure system and frontal boundary across the
northern Gulf late tonight through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across western Cuba to the NW Caribbean
Sea. A stationary front is located north of the NW Caribbean,
while favorable upper level dynamics and abundant moisture support
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 18N and
between 78W and 84W. Similar convection is also seen in the Gulf
of Gonave and off NW Colombia. The remainder of the Caribbean is
weakly influenced by a subtropical ridge located over the far NE
Atlantic.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned subtropical ridge
and lower pressures in northern South America sustain fresh to
strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. The
strongest winds are occurring near and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Seas of 5-7 ft are present in the south-central Caribbean. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh
easterly winds in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in
these waters are 3-5 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the subtropical
Atlantic near 63W extends a ridge westward to the central Bahamas,
and will shift slightly W-NW into Thu morning. Moderate to fresh
E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central
Caribbean today then become easterly tonight through Thu, pulsing
to strong near the coast of NW Venezuela and N Colombia through
early tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will prevail across the NW
basin through Wed near a tropical wave currently along 85W. Fresh
SE to S winds will develop across the NW Caribbean Wed and become
strong Wed night through Thu as low pressure moves eastward across
the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
remain fresh through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning in the SW tropical Atlantic and Tropical Depression
Nineteen in the eastern Atlantic.

A stationary front is draped across the SW tropical Atlantic,
extending from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida. A
pre-frontal trough is analyzed within 120 nm of the frontal
boundary, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
also affecting the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are
occurring in association with the strongest convection. Elsewhere
west of 60W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

Another batch of showers is noted north of 26N and between 47W and
55W. Farther east, a surface trough enters the basin near 31N41W
and extends to 24N49W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present north of 25N and east of the trough to
30N. In both areas of convection described, fresh to strong winds
are occurring with the strongest storms. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds are evident north of 24N and between 29W and 44W.
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. In the rest of the basin, a weak
high pressure pattern supports moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic near
23N63W extends a ridge westward to the central Bahamas. A weak
stationary front extending from 31N68W to just offshore the upper
Florida Keys will remain in the vicinity through Wed, while weak high
pressure shifts W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Low
pressure along a front is expected to move eastward across N
Florida Wed night, then continue eastward and emerge across the W
Atlc, bringing strong to gale force winds east of northern and
central Florida Thu night, then move E of 72W Thu night, and
across the NE waters Fri and Fri night. Scattered thunderstorms
with large and confused seas are expected to accompany this low
pressure system.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net