[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-force Event (Invest-AL93): Low pressure of
1007 mb low pressure is located over the southwestern Gulf near
22N95W while the southwestern most point of a NE to SW oriented
stationary front reaches about 160 nm to the east of the low
pressure center. The low is part of broad area of low pressure,
and its circulation remains elongated and not well- defined,
Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 60
nm north and northeast of the low. This activity is lifting
northward. A recent ASCAT data pass indicates gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds near the convection, with embedded
patches of fresh to strong winds. Seas with the fresh to strong
winds are 4-6 ft. Buoy 42055 at 22N94W presently has combined
seas of 5 ft. Additional development of the low is becoming
unlikely before the system merges with a developing frontal
boundary over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wed, however, strong
to gale-force winds will accompany the low and frontal boundary
across the northern Gulf late tonight through Wed night. Seas are
expected to build to around 9 ft with the gale-force winds on
Wed. Potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast by the
latter part of this week can be expected. Please, read bulletins
and forecasts from your local National Weather Service office,
and high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
for more information. Please, refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for details.

The Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest-AL92): A tropical wave has
its axis along 30W from 03N to 17N. A 1009 mb low pressure
center is along the wave axis near 10N. Satellite imagery shows
increasing numerous moderate to strong convection, in clustering
fashion, west of this system from 09N to 14N between 30W-38W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the wave
and low from 09N to 13N, and within 60 nm of 14N29W. The
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual
development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form
during the next couple of days while the system moves west-
northwestward or northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 86W
south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm east of the northern part of the
wave from 17N to 19N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are west
of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to the Invest-
1009 mb low pressure center that is the subject of the Invest
AL92 low pressure near 10N30W and to 08N41W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates the it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 10N51W and to 10N59W. Aside from convection
associated to Invest-AL92, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 18W-22W. within
10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the
trough between 16W-18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
INVEST-AL93 1007 mb low pressure center located in the
southwestern part of the Gulf.

Relatively weak high pressure is analyzed over the area. A
stationary front stretches from extreme South Florida to just
north of the Yucatan Channel and to near 22N92W. Latest ASCAT
data passes depict light to gentle easterly winds across the
Gulf, with the exception of the southwestern Gulf where gentle to
moderate east winds along with seas of 3-5 ft are near the
Special Features Invest-AL93 low. Seas elsewhere are 2-4 ft,
except for 4-6 ft seas in the western Gulf area from 22N to 26N
west of 94W.

Broken to overcast multilayer clouds with embedded patches of
rain along with pockets of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over just about the entire basin along and
northwest of the stationary frontal boundary.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Straits of
Florida to offshore of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. 1006 mb low
pressure is located near 22N94W. The front and low pres will lift
northward tonight through Wed, reaching along 29N. The low
pressure is expected to strengthen along the front tonight over
the NW Gulf, and move eastward across the N central and NE Gulf
Wed through Wed evening, then inland across N Florida Wed night.
Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms and strong to gale
force winds will accompany this low pressure system and frontal
boundary across the northern Gulf late tonight through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are concentrated are over
some sections of the western and central part of the sea from
about 12N to 21N between 76W-84W. Drier air present through all
levels of the atmosphere east of 84W is inhibiting deep
convection from developing. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate
fresh southeast trade winds in the south- central section of the
Caribbean and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Moderate
seas are nearly everywhere from 80W eastward, accept for the
waters that are about 210 nm to the north of Panama. Slight seas
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, including in the
waters that are about 210 nm to the north of Panama.

The eastern part of the E Pacific monsoon trough is along
09N/10N and west of 75W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
inland Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the Atlantic near
23N61W extends a ridge westward to the southeastern Bahamas. It
will shift slightly west- northwestward into Thu morning.
Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds will prevail across the
eastern and central Caribbean today then become easterly tonight
through Thu, pulsing to strong near the coast of NW Venezuela and
N Colombia this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will prevail
across the NW basin through Wed near a tropical wave currently
along 85W. Fresh SE to S winds will develop across the NW
Caribbean Wed and become strong Wed night through Thu as low
pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds
in the Gulf of Honduras will remain fresh through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Invest-AL92 low pressure and tropical wave.

A stationary front extends from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and
to extreme South Florida. A surface trough is to the southeast
and south of the front from near 31N57W to 28N66W and to 26N75W.
Broken to multilayer clouds with embedded pockets of scattered
showers and thunderstorms are northwest of a line from 31N52W to
26N63W and to the central Bahamas and central Cuba.

Another trough is analyzed from near 31N45W to 25N47W and to
near 16N54W while a cold front extends from a 1008 mb low that
is just north of the area near 32.5N43W to 3N48W and
northwestward to 33N51W where it transitions to a stationary
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving eastward are
noted north of 26N between 32W-52W.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 23N63W. Generally, weak
high pressure remains across the area outside the aforementioned
features.

Mostly moderate to some fresh north winds are within 500 nm to
the west of the coast of Africa from 19N northward. Moderate
winds are from 25N northward between 40W and 50W, with the 31N46W
21N50W surface trough. Moderate winds are within 560 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between the 29W/30W tropical
wave and 40W. Moderate or weaker winds are in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are within
850 nm to the northwest Invest-AL92 low pressure center and
tropical wave. Mostly moderate or lower seas are over the
rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic near 23N61W
extends a ridge westward to the SE Bahamas. A weak stationary
front extending from 31N69W to just offshore the upper Florida
Keys will gradually dissipate into Wed night, as high pressure
builds W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Large NE swell will
continue across the waters east of 65W today then gradually
subside. Low pressure along a front is expected to move eastward
across northern Florida Wed night, then continue eastward and
emerge across the western Atlantic bringing strong to gale force
winds east of northern and central Florida Thu night, then move
east of 72W Thu night, and across the northeast waters Fri and
Fri night. Thunderstorms with large and confused seas are
expected to accompany this low pressure system.

$$
Aguirre
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