[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 101738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more
concentrated while also showing signs of organization, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized this
afternoon in association with an area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable and this system has a short window to develop
further over the next day or so. By Wednesday morning, the system is
forecast to merge with a developing frontal boundary over the
western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft
is in route to investigate the system this afternoon and will
provide more information about the system's structure.

Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast
to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of
Mexico by tomorrow, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf
Coast by the latter portion of this week. For more information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office, and high
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin
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