[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 101136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased some, but remain
disorganized, in association with an area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable, surface pressures have been falling near
the system, and it has a short window to develop further over
the next day or so. However, by Wednesday morning the system is
forecast to merge with a developing frontal system over the western
Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.

Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast
to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of
Mexico by Wednesday, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf
Coast by the latter portion of this week. For more information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office, and high
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin
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