[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are centered N of
31N. Its proximity is enhancing strong winds and seas of 12-17 ft
N of 28N between 59W-65W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of
8-12 ft prevail elsewhere N of 26N between 57W-74W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is N of 25N between 50W-62W.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 42W from 06N-17N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
near 70W, S of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are along the northern half of the wave environment
affecting the Mona Passage and Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 10N29W to 09N40W,
then resumes near 09N44W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave described above, scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 13N and E of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary extends across the western half of the basin,
analyzed as a stationary front from 30N87W to 26N93W, then as a
cold front from that point to 19N96W. Moderate N to NE winds
prevail behind the front N of 19N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft follow the
front. Light to gentle variable winds and slight seas are
elsewhere ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the front will extend from the Florida Big Bend
to just S of Veracruz on Sat, and by Sun, the front will reach
from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche. High pressure and fresh
to strong winds will follow the front through Sun evening. The
front will weaken and then drift northward Mon through Wed as
southerly return flow gradually develops across most of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the central Caribbean.

Moderate SE winds and seas to 6 ft are to the E of the wave axis
in the E Caribbean. Ahead of the wave and in the remainder
Caribbean, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will
prevail across the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Expect light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from a
tropical wave that extends from Puerto Rico to Venezuela will
persist over the central and eastern Caribbean through tonight.
Moderate easterly trades will return to the east and central
Caribbean Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe.

Over the eastern a central Atlantic, a cold front extends from
31N30W SW to 21N46W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and rough
seas to 9 ft follow this front while mainly fresh SW winds are
within 150 nm ahead of it with seas to 8 ft. Scattered showers and
tstms are also ahead of the front to 23W. Light to gentle
variable winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere in the
subtropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, the remnants of Philippe will continue
moving away from the region tonight. Conditions will gradually
improve over impacted waters into Saturday. Weak high pressure
will build across the area in the wake of Philippe.

$$
ERA
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