[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe is centered near 30.7N 64.6W at
06/1500 UTC or 100 nm S of Bermuda, moving NNE at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated
near 18 ft, to the east of the center. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is also to the east of the center from 25N to
35N between 53W and 62W. On the forecast track, the system will
continue passing Bermuda today and will reach the coast of
Atlantic Canada or eastern New England Saturday night or Sunday.
Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Atlantis has been repositioned
based on scatterometer, low level precipitable water imagery and
satellite derived winds at the 700 hPa level. The axis of the
tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N with axis near 42W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to
17N and between 30W and 44W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea with
axis near 67W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm east and 120 nm west
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
southwestward to 10N21W to 10N28W. The ITCZ extends from 10N29W to
09N35W to 09N40W then resumes near 09N44W to 08N51W to 06N58W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave,
scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 11W and
24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A former stationary front has transitioned to a cold front this
morning and now stretches from Mississippi to near Tampico,
Mexico. A scatterometer pass show moderate N to NE winds behind
the front N of 24N and fresh to locally strong S of 24N and across
the coastal and offshore waters of Tampico, Mexico. Seas of 4 to 6
ft follow the front. Light to gentle variable winds and slight
seas are elsewhere ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold will reach from Mobile Bay to near
Cabo Rojo, Mexico late this evening, then reach from the Florida
Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sat afternoon, and from South
Florida to 21N96W to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun
afternoon. High pressure and fresh to locally strong winds will
follow the front through Sun evening. The front will weaken and
then drift northward Mon through Wed as southerly return flow
gradually develops across most of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Philippe has become post-tropical this morning and will continue
to move northward away from the region, with no further impacts
anticipated. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are ongoing in portions of the E and central Caribbean associated
with a tropical wave with axis near 67W. This convection is within
90 nm E and 120 nm W of the wave axis, affecting mainly the Mona
Passage and the E Dominican Republic adjacent waters. Moderate SE
winds and seas to 6 ft are to the E of the wave axis in the E
Caribbean. Ahead of the wave and in the remainder Caribbean, light
to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will
prevail across the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Expect light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Showers associated with the tropical wave
will persist through tonight. Moderate easterly trades will return
to the east and central Caribbean Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe is near 30.7N 64.6W at 11 AM EDT,
and is moving north-northeast at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 1003 mb. Over the SW N Atlantic waters to the E of the Bahamas,
the extension of moderate to fresh S to SW winds associated with
Philippe extend from 20 to 27N where seas are in the 5 to 10 ft
range. N of 27N, fresh to near gale-force winds are ongoing along
with rough seas of 10 to 17 ft. Farther east and over the eastern
a central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N31W SW to 22N46W.
Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and rough seas to 10 ft
follow this front while mainly fresh SW winds are within 150 nm
ahead of it with seas to 9 ft. Scattered showers and tstms are
also ahead of the front to 26W. Light to gentle variable winds and
slight to moderate seas are elsewhere in the subtropical Atlantic
waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, Philippe will become extratropical and
move to 33.1N 64.9W this evening, 36.3N 66.0W Sat morning, 40.0N
66.3W Sat evening, inland to 44.9N 67.5W Sun morning, inland to
49.1N 70.9W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Weak high
pressure will build across the area in the wake of Philippe. A
low-latitude tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast
of Africa later today and tonight. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
the system, and a tropical depression could form by the early to
middle part of next week while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

$$
Ramos
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