[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 29.5N 65.3W at 5 AM EDT,
moving north-northeast at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Peak
seas are estimated near 15 ft, to the east of the center.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is 120 to 300 nm to the
east of the center. Philippe is expected to maintain this general
motion through Saturday night, when it is expected to become
post-tropical. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will
pass near or across Bermuda this afternoon and evening, and then
move inland across New England and Atlantic Canada on Sunday. Some
slight strengthening is possible Saturday night as the post-
tropical transition occurs.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 41W, south of
19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N and between 30W and
43W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea and is
near 64W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 15.5N to the coast of Venezuela,
between 62W and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 16.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 11.5N24W
and 07.5N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N44W to 11N60W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 11N E
of 22W to the coast of Africa, and within 90 nm either side of
the ITCZ between 44W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate N to NE winds follow a cold front that has stalled from
southeast Louisiana to just south of Brownsville, Texas. Scattered
moderate convection remains active along the front, while
scattered patches of moderate convection aloft are seen behind the
front. The moderate northeasterly winds have generated seas of 4-6
ft W of the front and S of 28N, per recent buoy observations and
altimeter data. Scattered moderate convection is along across the
middle Mexican coastal waters within 120 nm of the coast.
Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle breezes are noted. Combined seas
are 2 to 4 ft SE of the front.

For the forecast, the stationary front is expected to be
overtaken by a new reinforcing front currently entering North
Texas, that will move into the NW Gulf this afternoon. The new
merged fronts will reach from Mobile Bay to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico
late this evening, then reach from the Florida Big Bend to near
Veracruz, Mexico by Sat afternoon, and from South Florida to
21N96W to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. High
pressure and fresh to locally strong winds will follow the front
through Sun evening, with peak seas across W and NW portions
building 8-10 ft. The front will weaken and then drift northward
Mon through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across
most of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms S of 15.5N accompany
the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean along 64W.
Fresh to locally strong SE winds are noted across the far eastern
Caribbean to the E of the wave axis, with seas 4 to 6 ft.
Easterly swell from the Atlantic is likely moving through the
larger Caribbean passages in this area as well. Light to gentle
breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere, due to a
relatively weak ridging north of the area. Broken bands of
moderate convection extend from the E and W ends of Hispaniola, SW
across the basin to Colombia, and are trailing convergence lines
extending into the SE side of Philippe.

For the forecast, Philippe will continue moving north-northeast
and cross near Bermuda this afternoon and evening. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern
Caribbean through Sat. Expect light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms from trailing outer rainbands
of Philippe, and a tropical wave along 64W, are impacting the
eastern and central Caribbean this morning and will persist
through tonight. Moderate easterly trades will return to the east
and central Caribbean Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A cold front enters the central tropical Atlantic near 31N33W and
continues southwestward to 25N48W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary, with
southwesterly fresh to locally strong winds. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas of
5 to 8 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic between the
front and Philippe. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
found south of 20N and west of 45W. Seas in this region are 5 to
7 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are
occurring in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 18N and east of
25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent. An deep layered upper low is across
western portions between Philippe and Florida, centered near
28N73.5W, and currently producing tranquil weather over the waters
S of 31N and W of 74W.

For the forecast, Philippe will continue a north-northeast motion
and cross near Bermuda this afternoon and evening, then is
expected to become a post- tropical cyclone Saturday afternoon.
Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of
Philippe. Look for seas to diminish to the N of 28N Sat afternoon
and evening as swell from Philippe fades across the regional
waters.

$$
Stripling
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