[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 06 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 28.2N 66.0W at 06/0300
UTC or 250 nm SSW of Bermuda, moving N at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are presently
around 15 ft, mainly to the east of the center. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is 65 to 200 nm to the
northeast of the center. Philippe is expected to maintain this
general motion with an increase in forward speed through
Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast
early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will
pass near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the
coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday
night. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday,
but Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W, south of
19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 06N to 11N and between 35W and 42W.

A tropical wave just entered the Caribbean Sea and is near 63W,
south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N and
between 57W and 66W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 10N31W and
09N45W. The ITCZ extends from 09N45W to 09N53W to 11N60W.
Isolated moderate convection is present from 04N to 10N and
between 44W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate northerly winds follow a cold front extending from near
southeast Louisiana to just south of Brownsville, Texas. A few
showers are active south of the cold front. In addition,
scattered moderate convection is moving into the western Gulf
from northeast Mexico. Moderate northeasterly winds are seen in
the coasts of Texas and in the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle breezes are noted. Combined
seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is expected to
remain nearly stationary overnight. A new reinforcing front will
move into the NW Gulf Fri, with the merging fronts reaching from
the W Florida Panhandle to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico Fri evening,
then reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Sat afternoon, and from South Florida to 22N90W to the central
Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. High pressure and fresh to
locally strong winds will follow the front through Sun morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the tropical wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean and the Leeward Islands.
Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are noted across the far
eastern Caribbean, with seas 4 to 6 ft. Easterly swell from the
Atlantic may be breaching some of the passages in this area as
well. Light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted
elsewhere, due to a relatively weak ridging north of the area.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 28.2N 66.0W at
11 PM EDT, moving north at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Philippe will continue to move northward and pass to the W of
Bermuda Fri afternoon and evening. Moderate to locally fresh E
to SE winds will prevail across the eastern Caribbean through at
least Fri. Expect light to gentle winds elsewhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms from trailing outer rainbands of
Philippe, and a tropical wave along 63W, are impacting the
eastern and central Caribbean tonight. This convective activity
is forecast to persist through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A cold front enters the central tropical Atlantic near 31N35W and
continues southwestward to 26N48W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary, with
southwesterly fresh to locally strong winds. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas of
6 to 8 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds are found south of 20N and west
of 43W. Seas in this region are 6 to 8 ft. Similar winds and
seas are also occurring in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of
18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 28.2N 66.0W at
11 PM EDT, moving north at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Philippe will continue moving northward and reach near 29.2N
65.8W Fri morning, then move N of the forecast area near 32.5N
65.7W Fri afternoon. Philippe will continue on a northward path
and is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday
evening. Weak high pressure will build across the area in the
wake of Philippe.

$$
KRV
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