[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 04N28W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N28W to 01N47.5W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from the Equator to 10N between 18W and 26.5W. Isolated
moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 03N between
38.5W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge dominates the Gulf, centered on a 1026 mb
high over southwestern Georgia. Fresh E to SE winds are noted
across western Gulf, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere
in the central and eastern Gulf. A surface trough continues
across the western Gulf from offshore of Tampico along 97W to
the central Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is
depicted with this trough.

For the forecast, a surface trough prevails across the Bay of
Campeche. Rough seas will continue in the vicinity of the trough
tonight. Strong SE return flow will set up across the northwest
Gulf starting early Thu ahead of the next approaching front that
will push off the Texas coast on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean
to the north of the front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across this area.
No significant convection is depicted in association with the
front except for small clusters of thunderstorms along the front
W of 84W. A weak surface trough extends from south of Jamaica to
eastern Cuba and along 77W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are depicted along the coast of western Jamaica in association
with this trough. Another area of similar convection is depicted
in the southwestern Caribbean in association with the eastern
end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough.

The pressure difference over the central Caribbean is producing
fresh to locally strong winds between 71W and 77W, with the
strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
across this area. East of 71W, moderate winds and 3 to 6 ft seas
are noted.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate
through early Thu. High pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas through early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of fronts are over the western Atlantic, extending
from a large and developing hurricane-force low-pressure system
across the NW Atlantic. The leading cold front extends from
28N55W to 23N70W, then becomes stationary to central Cuba. Light
showers along with lower ceilings are noted within 90 nm on
either side of the front, north of 27N. The second cold front
extends from 31N58W to 28N65W then is stationary to 27N74W.
Moderate SW winds are ahead of the leading front, north of 29N.
Moderate or less N to NE winds are behind the boundaries. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft behind the front W of 48W and 7 to 10 ft in
building NW swell E of 70W.

High pressure extends across the central Atlantic, anchored by a
1019 mb high near 29N45W. Light to gentle winds with seas 4 to 5
ft are noted under the influence of the high.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N20W to
25N26W then it is stationary while dissipating. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm ahead of the
front, north of 26.5N. A pre-frontal trough is producing light
showers and lower ceilings along 17W north of 21N. Fresh to
strong NW winds are north of 25.5N between 23W and 36W with seas
6 to 11 ft. West of the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh SW
winds with seas to 8 ft are noted. Light to gentle trade winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned fronts will merge
by early Thu, and the combined front will continue to move
southeast, then stall along 21W north of the northern Leeward
Islands by Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds, rough
seas and NE swell will follow the front into Sat. Looking ahead,
another front will move off the NE coast of Florida Sun night,
and reach from just west of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by
late Mon.

$$
KRV
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