[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone
near 07.5N12.5W, then extends southwestward to 03.5N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 03.5N30W to 00N46W. Scattered strong convection is
noted from the African coast southward to the Equator between 00W
and 08W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from the Equator to 08.5N between 12W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge dominates the Gulf, centered on a 1027 mb
high over southeastern Mississippi. Fresh NE to E winds are noted
across the southern Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche, where seas
have subsided to 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere south of 26N across the
basin, with mainly gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the
northern Gulf. A surface trough continues across the western Gulf
from offshore of Tampico along 97W to the central Bay of
Campeche. Fresh easterly low level flow continue to interact with
this trough to produce scattered moderate showers and isolated
thunderstorms along and E of the trough to 91W.

For the forecast, winds and seas across the SW Gulf will continue
to subside tonight through Thu a surface trough across the SW Gulf
moves slowly W and inland across Mexico. High pressure across the
Gulf coast  states will shift E into the weekend, allowing strong
return flow to set up across the northern Gulf starting early
Thu, ahead of the next approaching front that will push off the
Texas coast on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean to
the north of the front. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. No
significant convection is depicted in association with the front
except for small clusters of thunderstorms along the front W of
84W.

Late morning scatterometer data noted fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean between 70W and 82W, with the
strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia. Altimeter data there
showed seas up to 11 ft in the area of strong winds. Winds and
seas have since diminished slightly. Seas elsewhere across the
north central Caribbean are 4 to 7 ft. East of 70W, moderate
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge over the eastern
Caribbean Sea will continue shifting E, while the front remains
stationary in the NW basin and weakens. This will decrease the
coverage of fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
tonight and Thu. The large area of strong winds will return by Fri
night as high pressure again builds over the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of cold fronts are over the western Atlantic, extending
from a large and developing hurricane-force low-pressure system
across the NW Atlantic. The leading cold front extends from
31N52W to 24N70W, where it becomes stationary through central
Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm ahead of the
front, north of 26N. The second cold front extends from 31N60W to
27.5N76W. Moderate SW winds are ahead of the leading front, north
of 29N. Moderate or less N winds are behind the boundaries,
shifting to NE west of 70W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft behind the front W
of 70W and 6 to 9 ft in building NW swell E of 70W.

High pressure extends across the central Atlantic, anchored by a
1019 mb high near 29N44W. Light to gentle winds with seas 3 to 5
ft are noted under the influence of the high.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N22W to
21N37W. Fresh S winds are ahead, and W winds are behind the
front with seas 4 to 7 ft. Light to gentle trade winds and seas
at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the fronts will drift SE and continue
weakening through the week. Moderate to fresh winds will develop
within 210 nm behind the fronts Thu then become fresh to strong
Fri, as the high pressure behind the fronts moves E of Bermuda.
Seas will build to 8 ft and greater mainly NW of the second cold
front tonight through Fri.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net