[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
09N13W southwestward to 04N25W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
03N38W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Equator to
04N between 20W-30W, within 60 nm north of the trough between
28W-34W and within 30 nm of the trough and ITCZ between 23W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed from near Fort Myers, Florida to
27N85W, then continues as a warm front to a 1010 mb low near
27N96W. A trough is just inland the Texas coast. Scattered showers
and areas of rain are seen along and north of the warm front.

Overnight ASCAT data shows fresh northeast to east winds from
26N to 30N between 91W-95W and similar winds speeds, east to
southeast in direction, from 24N to 29N between 88W-91W. Gentle
to moderate east to southeast winds are elsewhere over the eastern
part of the basin, and gentle to moderate southeast to south
winds are over the remainder of the basin.

Seas of 6-8 ft are over the north-central Gulf from 27N-28N
between 88W-91W. Moderate seas are elsewhere north of 24N.
Slight seas are over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the above described warm front will lift
northward toward the northern Gulf today as the low tracks
northeastward and east toward the Florida Big Bend. This will send
a cold front across the basin this morning. The front will reach
from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz this evening, from near Fort
Myers to the central Bay of Campeche Mon morning, and from
western Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula and the eastern Bay of
Campeche Tue morning. The front will move southeast and south of
the basin Tue night as high pressure settles in over the region.
Fresh to strong winds will follow this front, except in the SW
Gulf where strong to near gale force winds are expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging over the region is maintaining a rather weak
pressure pattern across the basin. Overnight ASCAT data depicts
generally moderate to fresh trade winds south of 17N, except for
fresh to strong winds in the far south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Light to gentle
east to southeast winds are north of 17N.

Moderate seas compose the majority of the sea state of the eastern
half of the sea and also south of 17N west of 70W, while seas of
the slight range are elsewhere. Peak seas to 8 ft are near 12N75W.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just offshore the coast of
southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
across the eastern and central Caribbean sections through the next
few days, while mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
will continue in the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia,
and in the Gulf of Venezuela will continue through the forecast
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N72W southwestward to
South Florida. Overnight partial ASCAT data passes reveal mostly
gentle winds north of the front, while moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds are south of the front. Patches of rain, with
embedded scattered showers are along and north of the frontal
boundary. To the east of this feature, a cold front extends from
near 31N44W to 28N54W and to 25N64W. Moderate to fresh southwest
to west winds are along and to within 60 nm east of the front.
A 30 nm wide band of scattered thunderstorms is ahead of the
front from 28N46W to 27N51W and to 26N55W. It is moving eastward.
A weak high center of 1018 mb is south of the front near 24N57W,
while a weak high center of 1016 mb is north of the front near
30N65W. Generally, weak high pressure covers the remainder of the
area.

Altimeter data passes indicate moderate to rough seas north of
about 12N and east of 41W, with the maximum of the seas near
31N35W. Moderate seas are over the remainder of the Atlantic
waters. Fresh northeast winds are south of 15N between 44W-60W.
Moderate or weaker winds are over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will weaken and lift back N as a warm front today. A cold front
is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast on Mon, reach
from near 31N65W to 26N70W and to the central Bahamas and western
Cuba by Tue morning, then from near 30N55W to 25N70W by Wed
morning and continuing as a stationary front across the central
Bahamas and along the coast of western Cuba. The stationary front
will lift back N as a warm front late Wed. Moderate to fresh winds
are expected on either side of the front. High pressure will
build eastward across the region Thu and Thu night.A cold front
extends from a 1015 mb low near 32N71W southwestward to South
Florida, where it transitions to a stationary front. The cold
front will move eastward through Mon while dissipating. A new cold
front is forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida on Mon,
reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba by
Tue morning, then from near 31N55W to 25N70W by Wed morning and
continuing as a stationary front across the central Bahamas and
along the coast of western Cuba. The stationary front will lift
back N as a warm front late Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are
expected on either side of the front. High pressure will build
eastward over the area Thu and Thu night.

$$
Aguirre
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