[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 04N26W. The ITCZ continues from 04N26W to 03N34W, and to the
Equator along 41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is to the south of the line 12N60W 12N56W 07N50W 07N40W,
to the coast of Guinea-Bissau.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front curves through the SE part of Florida,
from 27N to 25N between 80W and 82W, and then the front
continues to 24N85W, to 26N89W. The front becomes warm at
26N89W, and it continues to 26N93W, to a 1011 mb 25N96W
low pressure center. A surface trough is along 23N93W,
to the 1011 mb low pressure center, and the trough curves
northwestward, into the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from the frontal
boundary northward.

The comparatively highest sea heights are 8 feet, from
240 nm to 300 nm to the south of Louisiana between 90W
and 91W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from the Florida
Panhandle to 24N and then westward. Slight seas are in
the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh easterly winds are
from the frontal boundary northward from 90W westward.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from the Bahamas to 90W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf.

A stationary front extends from South Florida to 25N85W and
to 26N89W, then continues as a warm front to a 1011 mb low
located near 25N96W. The low and the warm front will continue
to lift northward toward the northern Gulf through early Sun.
A cold front will move across the basin Sun morning, reach
from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun evening, from
near Fort Myers to the central Bay of Campeche Mon morning,
and from western Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula and the
E Bay of Campeche Tue morning. The front will move southeast
and south of the basin Tue night as high pressure shifts
eastward along 30N. Fresh to strong winds will follow this
front, except in the SW Gulf where strong to near gale
force winds are expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea, from
700 mb to 250 mb. A surface ridge extends from NW Cuba to
Central America, from Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, beyond
Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
Nicaragua southward from 74W westward. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, in areas of scattered
to broken low level clouds, in trade wind flow.

Fresh NE winds are from 16N southward from 80W eastward.
Moderate NE to E winds are in the rest of the area that
is from 83W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in
the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas cover much
of the eastern two-thirds of the area. The comparatively
highest sea heights, that range from 6 feet to 7 feet,
are within 300 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.
Slight seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the eastern
and central Caribbean sections through the next few days,
while mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
will continue in the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night
through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1016 mb 32N69W low
pressure center, to the Florida coast along 27N. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are from the stationary front southward
from 73W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 65W westward.

A cold front passes through 31N47W to 28N56W to 25N65W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward
between 40W and 65W.

A surface ridge passes through 31N22W to 26N27W, to 25N37W,
to a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 24N53W, to
23N70W, to NW Cuba.

Moderate to rough seas are from 10N northward between
25W and 60W. Slight seas are from 23N northward from 18W
eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong S winds are from 29N
northward between 25W and 29W. These winds are to the
south of a 1004 mb 36N32W gale-force winds low pressure
center. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere
from 22N northward between 25W and 40W. Fresh NE winds
are from 19N to 24N from 20W eastward. Fresh NE winds
are from 15N southward between 44W and 60W. Mostly
moderate to some fresh NE winds are from 03N to 21N
between 20W and 45W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
are from 22N northward between 25W and 40W. Moderate or
slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low near 32N71W
southwestward to South Florida, where it transitions to
a stationary front. The cold front will move eastward
through Mon while dissipating. A new cold front is
forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida on Mon,
reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and
western Cuba by Tue morning, then from near 31N55W to
25N70W by Wed morning and continuing as a stationary
front across the central Bahamas and along the coast
of western Cuba. The stationary front will lift back
N as a warm front late Wed. Moderate to fresh winds
are expected on either side of the front. High pressure
will build eastward over the area Thu and Thu night.

$$
MT/JA
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