[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A 1003 mb low along a frontal boundary is near 29.5N51W in the
central Atlantic. It is generating near-gale to gale-force W to NW
winds with 15 to 18 ft seas north of 28N between 51W and 55W. As
this low tracks southeastward through Wed, gales and higher seas
at 17 to 20 ft will also shift southeastward. As this low moves
over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days,
environmental conditions also appear conducive for this system to
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the
system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward
by the weekend. This system has a low chance of development in 48
hours and medium chance in 7 days.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front stretches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to
just south of Veracruz, Mexico. Near-gale to gale northerly winds
and 13 to 15 ft seas are present at the southwestern Bay of
Campeche, offshore from Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 80 nm east of
the front. As the front pushes farther eastward, reaching from
central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche late Wed afternoon
and evening, winds and seas at the western Bay of Campeche will
gradually subside.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale
Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over central Africa. An ITCZ extends
west-northwestward from 04N17W across 07N35W to 10N49W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is seen up to 150 nm north and 100
nm south of this feature.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a strong cold front
and related Gale Warning.

East of the cold front, a surface ridge extends southwestward from
central Florida to just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to
moderate S to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds
and 1 to 2 ft seas are noted at the south-central Gulf and eastern
Bay of Campeche. West of the front outside the Gale Warning area,
fresh to strong northerly winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft dominate
the west-central and northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds
and seas of 4 to 8 ft are found at the north-central Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will eventually stall from the
southern tip of Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Thu.
Gale force winds will continue through Wed afternoon off the
Veracruz coast with rough to very rough seas. Meanwhile, strong
winds will follow the front across most of the Gulf through Wed
night. Winds and seas will subside on Thu as high pressure settles
in.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The East Pacific monsoon trough passes through northern Costa Rica
into the Caribbean Sea to a 1008 mb low north of Colombia. A
surface trough then continues from this low to near the northern
Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
are flaring up south of Jamaica, while scattered showers are
evident near the surface trough. Fresh to strong ENE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the north-central basin, south of
Hispaniola and at the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and
1 to 2 ft seas are noted at the southwestern basin. Moderate with
locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident
near the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and just south of Puerto Rico.
Mainly gentle NE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms associated with the
1008 mb low along with some strong winds to the north of the
center will diminish tonight into Wed as the low weakens. High
pressure north of the area will cause fresh to strong NE winds in
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into Wed before
conditions improve. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or less
through late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for
details on a Gale Warning.

A cold front curves southwestward from the 1003 mb low mentioned
in the Special Features section to just north of the northern
Leeward Islands. Convergent southerly winds east of the front are
causing scattered moderate convection north of 20N between 45W and
51W. Widely scattered showers are present south of the front to
19N between 51W and 62W. A surface trough curves southwestward
from a dissipating occluded front south of the Azores across
31N28W to 24N36W. Scattered showers are seen up to 70 nm along
either side of this feature. Convergent trade winds are coupling
with strong divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered moderate
convection southwest and south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NW winds and seas
of 10 to 15 ft are seen from 24N to 28N between 51W and 55W. Fresh
to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted east of the cold
front, north of 24N between 42W and 51W. Fresh to strong NNW to NW
winds and seas at 12 to 15 ft exist west of the front north of 23N
between 55W and 62W. Moderate to strong with locally strong ENE to
SE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas prevail north of 20N and west of 62W.
South of the cold front, moderate with locally fresh S to SW winds
and seas of 5 to 6 ft are present from 19N to 24N between 40W and
62W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to SSW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found north of 23N
between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. At the central
Atlantic, a 1015 mb high near 22N37W is providing light to gentle
winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell north of 18N
between 30W and 40W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle with
locally moderate NE to SE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist from
the Equator to 20N between 20W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle monsoonal westerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell will lead to seas
of 12 ft or greater north of 20N and east of 65W into late week
with swell also impacting the Atlantic Passages. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong winds are definitely offshore northern Florida in
advance of the next cold front that will push off the Florida
coast by Wed.

$$

Chan
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