[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure near 31N53W has a cold front
extending SW of the low to the Anegada Passage. Gale force winds
are ongoing west of the front to 67W and N of 23.5N. Seas in these
waters are 10-18 ft. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are also noted
ahead of the front to 48W, N of 25N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the cold front north of 23N between
51W and 55W. As the low tracks SE through Wed night, gale force
winds will continue in the forecast waters through Wed morning
along with a broad area of strong winds on both sides of the low
and front N of 23N and E of 65W. High seas over 20 ft will
accompany the strong to gale- force winds. As this low moves over
warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the
system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward
by the weekend. This system has a low chance of development in 48
hours and medium chance in 7 days. Regardless of development,
northerly swell will lead to seas of 12 ft or greater N of 20N and
E of 65W into late week with swell also impacting the Atlantic
Passages.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1800 UTC, a cold front
stretches from Alabama to south of Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the
front, especially north of 26N. Strong to near gale-force
northerly winds are found behind the cold front, with the
strongest winds occurring off Veracruz. Seas are 7-11 ft behind
the front. The front will extend from the Big Bend of Florida to
the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed morning, and from the Florida Keys
to the northern Yucatan by Thu morning. Gale force winds will
continue through Wed afternoon off the Veracruz coast with rough
to very rough seas. Meanwhile, strong winds will follow the front
across most of the Gulf through Wed night. Winds and seas will
subside on Thu as the front stalls across the SE Gulf and high
pressure settles in.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale
Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is draped across central Africa. The ITCZ
extends from 04N20W to 10N60W. A few showers are seen near the
boundary.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
southwestern Gulf.

The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a strong ridge
over New England. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are
evident in the eastern Gulf, especially east of a line from Pinar
del Rio, Cuba, to the Florida Panhandle. Seas in these waters are
3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits.
Slight to gentle southerly winds and 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front stretches from Alabama to south of
Veracruz, Mexico. Gale force winds are ongoing off the coast of
Veracruz. The front will extend from the Big Bend of Florida to
the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed morning, and from the Florida Keys
to the northern Yucatan by Thu morning. Gale force winds will
continue through Wed afternoon off the Veracruz coast with rough
to very rough seas. Meanwhile, strong winds will follow the front
across most of the Gulf through Wed night. Winds and seas will
subside on Thu as the front stalls across the SE Gulf and high
pressure settles in.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low pressure (Invest 99L) is located in the south-central
Caribbean Sea, off the Guajira peninsula of Colombia. A surface
trough extends to the northeast toward the US Virgin Islands,
while the eastern Pacific monsoon trough reaches the low pressure
from the coast of Costa Rica. Invest 99L has a low chance of
tropical development in the next 48 hours. For more details,
please visit hurricanes.gov

In the north-central Caribbean NE winds are fresh to strong, with
seas 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 4-5
ft are present in the Windward Passage and the Lee of Cuba.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms associated with a
small area of low pressure over the central Caribbean have not
become any better organized today. Nearby dry air is forecast to
prevent additional significant development of the system as it
moves slowly westward during the next few days. This system has a
low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days.
Meanwhile, high pressure N of the Greater Antilles will cause
fresh to strong NE winds to continue in the Windward Passage and
just S of Hispaniola through Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, winds will
be moderate or less into late week.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section details on a Gale
Warning.

A 1036 mb high pressure system over New England extends southward
into the SW North Atlantic. A dry airmass dominates the region,
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the cold front mentioned in the
Special Features section sustain fresh to locally strong E-SE
winds, especially west of 73W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft.

Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 31N23.5W to 22N44W.
Moderate to strong convection is noted north of 28.5N between 22W
and 26W. Southeast of the front, a 1019 high pressure in centered
near 24N18.5W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft
are evident north of 23N between 16.5W and 22W. East of the Canary
Islands, fresh to locally strong northerly, with seas to 8 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure near 31N53W has a cold
front extending SW of the low to the Anegada Passage. Gale force
winds are ongoing west of the low and front. As the low tracks SE
through Wed night, gale force winds will continue in the forecast
waters through Wed morning along with a broad area of strong winds
on both sides of the low and front N of 23N and E of 65W. High
seas over 20 ft will accompany the strong to gale- force winds. As
this low moves over warmer sea surface temperatures during the
next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for
this system to gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A
subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of
this week, as the system continues moving eastward followed by a
turn northeastward by the weekend. This system has a low chance of
development in 48 hours and medium chance in 7 days. Regardless
of development, northerly swell will lead to seas of 12 ft or
greater N of 20N and E of 65W into late week with swell also
impacting the Atlantic Passages. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
winds will develop offshore northern Florida tonight in advance of
the next cold front that will push off the Florida coast by Wed.

$$
KRV
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