[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Low pressure of 1005 mb is located near 30.5N69W with a cold
front extending to the central Bahamas. A surface trough is ahead
of the front and runs from 28N65W to 20N70W. A tight presure
gradient between this system and a 1033 mb North Atlantic High is
producing near-gale to gale-force southerly winds E of the front
north of 26N between 60W and 65W. Seas in this area range from 10
to 15 ft. Fresh to strong winds prevail elsewhere within 180 nm E
of the front, with seas of 7-10 ft. Winds will diminish below gale
force E of the front tonight. Winds will increase to gale force
west of the front late Mon night.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon night. The front will
reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue morning,
and from northern Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed
morning. Gale force winds will develop over the west-central and
SW Gulf W of the front Tue through Wed. Seas are forecast to
build to 14 to 16 ft over the SW Gulf by Tue night into Wed
morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and latest Offshore Water
Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ extends from
08.5N13W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N to 12N E of 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on an upcoming gale warning in the
western Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
southerly return flow prevails over the western Gulf, with light
to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh southerly return flow is expected over
the western Gulf tonight and Mon, ahead of the next cold forecast
to enter the NW Gulf Mon night. The front will reach from SE
Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue morning, and from
northern Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning.
Gale force winds will develop over the west-central and SW Gulf
Tue through Wed. Seas are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft over
the SW Gulf by Tue night into Wed morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A small area of low pressure located just offshore of the northern
coast of South America is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Proximity of nearby dry air is likely to prevent
significant development of this system as it begins to drift slowly
westward over the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Fresh to
strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail over the western
semicircle of the low. Elsewhere, low pressure and surface
troughing prevail over the western Caribbean. Fresh winds are
noted off Nicaragua and Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds previl
E of 70W, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface trough will persist over the central
Caribbean trough mid-week. Under this weather pattern, moderate to
locally fresh SE to S winds are expected over the eastern
Caribbean while gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail over
the western Caribbean tonight and Mon. High pressure will build
across the Greater Antilles on Tue bringing increasing winds
across the Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on an ongoing gale warning in the SW N
Atlantic waters.

Aside from the low and associated gales, high pressure prevails
over the discussion waters east of 60W. A stationary front extends
from 31N23W to 25N36W to 28N46W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas
of 8-11 ft are N of the front. Gentle to moderae winds, and seas
of 6-9 ft are elsewhere E of 60W. Over the waters W of 60W W of
the cold front mentioned in the special features section above,
moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front and the trough will merge
tonight or Mon, and a cold front will continue to move SE across
the forecast waters. Strong to gale force southerly winds are
occurring N of 26N between 60W and 65W. As the low moves N of the
area tonight, the southerly winds ahead of the front will
gradually diminish, but fresh to strong NW to N winds will develop
NW of the cold front. On Tue, a low is forecast to develop along
the frontal boundary. This system, combined with strong high
pressure in the wake of the front, is forecast to bring strong to
gale force winds over the NE waters.

$$
AL
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