[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 31N72W. A surface
trough extends from the low pressure center, through the
central Bahamas, to SE Cuba near 22N77W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 23N
northward between 58W and 68W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward.
Expect: near gale-force to gale-force southerly winds, and
sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, are from 25N
northward between 60W and 67W. Expect: S to SW winds from
20 knots to 25 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet
to 11 feet primarily in NE swell, from 21N to 25N between
60W and 69W. Elsewhere: winds 20 knots or less, and sea
heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in NE swell, from
08N northward between 55W and 75W...including in the
Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Offshore Water Forecast west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...Significant Central Atlantic Ocean N Swell Event...

Residual large northerly swell, that has been generated by
an earlier northern Atlantic Ocean storm, will maintain sea
heights that will range from 11 feet to 12 feet from 23N
northward between 39W and 51W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic
winds are from 25N northward between 32W and 55W. The swell
is forecast to decay today, and the sea heights will be
less than 12 feet also. Rough seas, in general, cover most
of the areas that are from 07N northward from 70W eastward.
An exception is for moderate seas to be to the south of the
line 23N20W 14N27W 12N33W 08N38W 07N46W 07N58W. Please, read
the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ starts
at the coast of Sierra Leone, near 08N13W, to 06N20W 04N32W
02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 13N southward from 43W eastward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward
from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, to the SW Florida coast
near 26.5N. The front is dissipating cold into the west
central Gulf of Mexico near 24N93W. Rainshowers are possible
throughout the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds, and slight seas,
span the Gulf of Mexico.

A dissipating cold front extends from SW Florida to near
24N93W. High pressure will build in its wake, with mainly
gentle N winds over the basin today becoming E by tonight.
Southerly return flow will increase to fresh in the western
Gulf by late tonight. The next cold front will move off the
Texas coast Mon night, with gales expected to develop over
the west central and SW Gulf Tue through Wed. Seas are
forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft over the SW Gulf by Tue
night into Wed morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 16N80W. A surface trough
extends from the low pressure center to the southern part of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast
low level and middle level clouds, and rainshowers are from
76W westward from the monsoon trough northward. Moderate seas
are from Nicaragua northward from 80W westward. Slight seas
are in the SW corner of the area.

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure
center that is near 13N75W, beyond Nicaragua, into the
Pacific Ocean. A surface trough extends from the 1009 mb
low pressure center to the Windward Passage. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm of the low
pressure center in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong also is from 13N to the Dominican
Republic and to Puerto Rico between the Mona Passage and
73W. Moderate seas are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Slight to moderate seas are in the central Caribbean Sea.

Moderate seas are from 83W eastward. Slight seas cover the
rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh SE winds are to the east of
the surface trough that reaches the Windward Passage. Moderate
or slower winds are elsewhere.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are: 1.09 in Bermuda, and 0.13
in Freeport in the Bahamas, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Yucatan
Peninsula and northern Central America and a low pressure
over the NW Caribbean supports and area of fresh to locally
strong NW winds offshore eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua
that will diminish late this morning. A surface trough
will remain over the central Caribbean into Tue night.
A weak low could develop along the trough axis. Ahead of
this trough, fresh S to SW winds are expected today offshore
Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the western Atlantic Ocean Gale-force Wind Warning,
and the central Atlantic Ocean Swell Event.

A cold front passes through 31N78W, to Lake Okeechobee in
South Florida, to the SW Florida coast near 26.5N. The front
is dissipating cold into the west central Gulf of Mexico
near 24N93W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 20N northward from 70W westward. Moderate to
rough seas are from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward.
Slight seas are from the Bahamas southward.

A stationary front is along 31N26W 29N20W 27N47W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate, are within 180 nm on either side of 18N35W
24N25W beyond 31N21W.

Fresh NE winds are from 19N to 26N between 32W and 44W,
and from 08N to 18N between 34W and 60W. Moderate or
slower wind speeds are elsewhere in the area.

Low pressure of 1004 mb is located near 31N72W with a
trough extending to eastern Cuba. E of this trough, an
area of strong to gale force southerly winds are occurring
N of 26N between 60W and 65W. The low will move N of area
today, with the trough evolving into a cold front. As the
low moves N of the area, S winds ahead of the front will
diminish gradually, but fresh NW to N winds will develop
NW of the cold front.

$$
mt/gr
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