[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190614
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure system is
located north of the central Bahamas near 28N74W. Tight gradient
between this system and a large 1034 mb North Atlantic High is
producing near-gale to gale-force southerly winds north of 27N
between 60W and 65W. Seas in this area range from 12 to 15 ft.
These conditions are expected to persist through Sunday morning.
As the low moves northeastward into the north Atlantic Sunday
afternoon and evening, both winds and seas should gradually
subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and latest Offshore Water
Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding for the eastern Dominican Republic: A
broad surface trough extends northeastward from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea across the eastern tip of Cuba to beyond the Turks
and Caicos Islands. Convergent southerly winds east of the trough
axis continue to produce scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Dominican Republic through Sunday. Heavy downpours
from these thunderstorms can cause urban flooding and flash
flooding along smaller streams and rivers, and increase the
potential for mudslides in hilly terrain. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

Significant North Swell in the Central Atlantic: Residual large
northerly swell generated by an earlier storm at the north
Atlantic will maintain 11 to 12 ft seas north of 23N between 39W
and 51W. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to SE winds are
also found in this area. This swell will decay further on Sun
afternoon, which should allow seas to drop below 11 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Senegal/Gambia
border and extends southwestward to 08N19W. An ITCZ then continues
from 08N19W across 06N30W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N
between the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast and 17W. Similar convection
is present up to 250 nm north, and 150 nm south of the ITCZ
between 21W and 36W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, south of 12N near Panama and
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends west-southwestward from the Florida Big
Bend area to the west-central Gulf near 25N93W, then continues
westward as a stationary front to near the Texas-Mexico border. A
surface trough is moving southward into the Bay of Campeche.
Widely scattered showers are seen near and behind the frontal
boundary, and near the trough at the south-central Gulf. A 1014 mb
high at the western Bay of Campeche is providing light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft for the southwestern and west-central
Gulf. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the weak cold front is expected to dissipate
Sun. High pressure currently over Texas will build southeastward in
its wake, and promote mainly gentle N winds across the Gulf Sun
afternoon before becoming easterly by Sun night. Southerly winds
will form Mon and increase to fresh in the western Gulf. The next
cold front will move off the Texas coast Mon night, with gales
expected to develop over the west-central and southwestern Gulf
Tue through Wed. Seas are forecast to build and reach 14 to 16 ft
across the southwestern Gulf by Tue night into Wed morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the heavy rain and flooding potential for the eastern Dominican
Republic.

A surface trough runs eastward from the Gulf of Honduras to a 1009
mb low south of the Cayman Islands at 17N81W. Widely scattered
showers are noted near these features. A broad surface trough
extends northeastward from a 1008 mb low offshore from
northwestern Colombia near 12N76W to beyond the eastern tip of
Cuba. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring near the low, while scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms are seen south of the eastern Dominican Republic to
near 14N.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to NW winds and seas at
4 to 7 ft are present offshore from the Honduras-Nicaragua border,
and from northwestern Colombia near Barranquilla. Moderate to
fresh SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the eastern basin.
Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the
Yucatan Peninsula/northern Central America and the low south of
the Cayman Islands will continue to support fresh with locally
strong W to NW winds offshore from the Honduras-Nicaragua border
through Sun morning. The broad surface trough and associated low
will remain over the southwestern and central Caribbean through
Tue. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore from northwestern Colombia
are expected to last into Sun morning

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Gales in the western Atlantic, and large north swell in the
central Atlantic.

A broad surface trough extends northeastward from the eastern tip
of Cuba across the Turks and Caicos Islands to near 30N68W.
Convergent southerly winds east of the trough axis are
coupling with strong divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection north of 20N between 62W
and 72W. Another surface trough reaches southwestward from a 1003
mb low north of the central Bahamas near 28N74W across the
northwest Bahamas to beyond central Cuba. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of 27N and
west of 72W. A cold front curves southwestward from southeast of
the Azores across 31N28W to near 26N34W, then continues westward
as a stationary front to near 24N50W. Widely scattered showers are
evident near and up to 230 nm north of the stationary front.
Similar conditions are found up to 130 nm along either side of the
cold front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside from the areas described in the Special Features section:

Moderate to fresh WSW to NNW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
present north of 20N west of 70W. Fresh to strong SE to SW winds
and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted from 20N to 27N between 50W and 70W.
Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to
NE trades and 7 to 10 ft seas in large northerly swell exist north
of 14N between the Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical central
Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 8 to 10
ft in moderate northerly swell dominate from 05N to 20N between
35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and
monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned 1003 mb low and
related surface trough will move north of area overnight with
fresh NW to N winds in its wake. Also, S winds will gradually
diminish ahead of the trough.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net