[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding for Hispaniola: A trough extending
from 26N67W southwestward to Haiti and to well into the
Caribbean Sea to near 13N77W will linger into early next week.
Numerous large clusters of strong convection are over most of the
Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. Scattered moderate
convection is over the eastern and central sections of Haiti.
Heavy rainfall from this convection is likely to produce flash
flooding, along with mudslides in hilly terrain. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Significant North Swell in the Central Atlantic: Large north
swell generated by an earlier storm at the north Atlantic has
reached as far south as 18N in the central Atlantic between
about 28W-53W. Seas of 10-15 ft are noted north of 18N between
35W and 55W. This swell will gradually decay through Sun, with
seas subsiding to below 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml latest Offshore Water
Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-
Bissau coast and extends southwestward to 10N19W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to
07N30W to 06N39W and 05N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 60 nm south of the trough between 21W-29W, and within
60 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W-25W. Similar activity is
north of the ITCZ from 07N to 09N between 41W-45W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and
inland the coast of Africa between 05W-10W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from near Mobile, Alabama southwestward
to 26N93W, where it transitions to a stationary front that
continues to inland southern Texas near Brownsville. However, no
significant convection is associated with this front. Elsewhere,
high pressure of 1021 mb centered over eastern Mexico near
22.5N98W is building eastward. The gradient in place is allowing
for a gentle to moderate northerly flow to exist across the
basin. Seas are 2-4 ft throughout.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the Gulf
waters producing light to gentle northwest to north winds over
the western half of the Gulf, and mainly moderate N winds over
the eastern half of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.
These winds will veer to the east and southeast on Sun.
Southerly return flow will increase over the western Gulf Sun
night ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas
coast Mon night into Tue. Gale conditions are likely in the wake
of the front over the west-central and southwest sections of
the Gulf Tue through Wed. Seas are forecast to build to 14 to 16
ft over the SW Gulf by Tue night into Wed morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the heavy rain and flooding potential for Hispaniola.

Weak low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 19N84W and is
producing no convection. A trough extends from northeast and
east of the southeastern Bahamas southwestward to near 13N77W.
The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough axis protrudes
into the far southwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is confined to south of 13N between
75W-80W. Latest ASCAT data passes reveals fresh west to northwest
winds south of 19N and west of 83W, while mostly gentle west to
northwest winds are elsewhere west of 79W. Fresh southeast winds
are in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft, except for seas
of 4-6 ft north of 18N west of 80W and 2-4 ft from 18N to 20N
between 76W-80W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America and low
pressure over the northwestern Caribbean supports and area of
fresh to strong west to northwest winds from about 16N to 20N and
west of 83W. These winds are expected to change little through
tonight. A trailing surface trough will remain over the central
Caribbean into Tue. Weak low pressure may develop along the
trough axis. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected
west of the trough and mainly offshore Nicaragua through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
large north swell in the central Atlantic.

A trough extends from near 26N67W southwestward to Haiti.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the
trough to near 57W as well as north of the trough. Low Low
pressure of 1007 mb is analyzed near 31N76W. A frontal trough
extends from this low to the central Bahamas and to west- central
Cuba. Scattered moderate convection moving quickly eastward is
north of 26N between 69W and the trough and low. Scattered
showers are west of the low and trough to 79W and north of 28N.
ASCAT data passes from this afternoon show fresh to strong
northwest to north winds north of 27N and west of the frontal
trough.

In the central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from
near 31N29W southwestward to 25N40W and to 24N50W. Fresh to
strong northeast winds are north of this frontal boundary
along with seas of 10-15 ft in north swell as described above
under the Special Features section.

Moderate to fresh trades are southeast and south of the
stationary frontal boundary along with seas of 5-7 ft. Lower
seas of 2-4 ft are southwest of the Bahamas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned low of 1007 mb
will lift north of the area in a few hours, with fresh to
strong northwest to north winds continuing west of the
frontal trough, and fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the
trough. The remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
continue to quickly move northeast. They are forecast to merge
with the frontal trough on Sun.

$$
Aguirre
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