[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080945
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning off Morocco: Gale force NE winds persist
off Morocco, between 1027 mb high pressure centered between
Madeira and the Azores, and broad troughing over northwest Africa.
Combined seas are 10 to 16 ft in the area of gale force winds.
The gale-force winds are expected to continue through at least
08/1500 UTC. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast,
that is listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
07N20W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 06N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N between
25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico near 29N85W. This pattern is supporting calm to light
breezes over the northeast Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over northeast Gulf
will shift east of the area today. A cold front will move off the
Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri, then stall from north-
central Florida to weak low pressure near south Texas, with a cold
front extending the low pressure southward to near Veracruz,
Mexico. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the
front, especially over the far west- central and southwest Gulf
along the coast of Mexico from Fri night to Sat night, and over
most of the western Gulf Sun and Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to fresh NE
winds across the northwest Caribbean south of 18N, between high
pressure north of the area and a trough along the coast of
Honduras. Concurrent altimeter and buoy data indicated seas of 3
to 5 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh NE winds may be ongoing
across the Windward Passage as well, and south of Cabo Beata on
the south coast of Hispaniola, with 3 to 5 ft seas in these areas.
Moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
Scattered showers are active across the northeast Caribbean,
associated with a weak frontal trough in the area.

For the forecast, the relatively weak high pressure north of the
area will be replaced by stronger high pressure on Thu before it
begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will
allow for northeast winds to increase to mostly fresh speeds in
the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola
by late Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the
central Caribbean and over the western part of the eastern
Caribbean Fri through Sun as a result from a tightening gradient
between the high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure
over the southwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the METEO-FRANCE marine zones, Agadir
and Tarfaya.

A weak cold front reaches from 31N50W to the Virgin Islands. Fresh
to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted within 300 nm
east of the front, north of 27N. Broad ridging is supporting
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere west of 35W. Farther
east, in addition the gale force winds off Morocco, fresh to
strong NE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front extending from
25N55W to the Virgin Islands will shift east 55W today ahead of
relatively weak high pressure building eastward along 30N through
the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong east winds
over the waters south of 24N, including the approaches to the
Windward Passage through Sun. Looking ahead, strong winds and
building seas will follow a cold front expected to move over the
waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat and stall through
Sun night.

$$
Christensen
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