[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning to the E of 35W: The surface pressure
gradient, that is between a 1029 mb high pressure center that is to
the SE of the Azores Islands and comparatively lower pressures in
NW Africa, is resulting in gale-force N to NE winds in the Meteo-
France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. Strong to near gale-
force NE winds are from 18N to 23N from 23W eastward. Fresh NE
winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 10N northward
from 40W eastward. Rough to very rough seas are in the areas of
the comparatively fastest wind speeds. Rough seas are from 10N to
28N from 30W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from 10N to 28N
between 30W and 42W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. The gale-force winds are expected to continue
through at least 08/0900 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France
High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N17W and 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W,
to 06N50W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 07N
to 09N between 26W and 31W. An upper level inverted trough is
along 10N45W 27N32W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
within 360 nm on either side of 10N48W 22N38W 26N33W 26N22W,
beyond 23N16W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from the ITCZ to 12N between 30W and 50W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 14N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N85W in the NE corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire area. Fresh SE winds are within 75 nm of land from 23N to
28N from Mexico to Texas. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind
flow covers the remainder of the area. Slight seas are in the Gulf
of Mexico.

Rainshowers are possible in the SE Gulf from 24N southward from
87W eastward, and from 24N southward from 90W westward.

High pressure centered over north-central Gulf will shift east of
the area by late Wed. Meanwhile a weak trough will form off the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move across
the southwest Gulf overnight. Looking ahead, a cold front will
move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri, preceded by
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. By early Sat, the
front may stall from north-central Florida to weak low pressure
near south Texas, with a cold front extending the low pressure
southward to near Veracruz, Mexico. Little change to this pattern
is expected Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas will follow the front, especially over the far west- central
and southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Fri night to Sat
night and over most of the western Gulf Sun and Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 71W, from the
Dominican Republic southward. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm on either side of the
line that runs from 11N59W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 14N60W 15N62W
16N64W 17N65W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
between the first line of precipitation and 74W.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 13N82W, to NE
Nicaragua, through the coastal plains of Honduras, to southern
Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 12N to 17N between 82W and 92W, from the Caribbean
Sea, to parts of Central America, to parts of the Pacific Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 74W in Colombia, beyond
Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 74W
westward.

Slight seas are in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds
cover most of the area. Gentle winds are in the SW corner of the
area.

The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, for the time period that
ended at 08/0000 UTC, is: 0.63 in Curacao, according to the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Relatively weak high pressure north of the area will be replaced
by stronger high pressure on Thu before it begins to gradually
shift eastward through the weekend. This will allow for northeast
winds to increase to mostly fresh speeds in the lee of Cuba, in
the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola by late Wed. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will build over the central Caribbean and
over the western part of the eastern Caribbean Fri through Sun as
a result from a tightening gradient between the high pressure over
the Atlantic and lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the METEO-FRANCE marine zones, Agadir
and Tarfaya.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are
from the Greater Antilles northward from 54W westward. A cold
front passes through 31N54W 25N57W 18N64W. A first surface trough
is about 170 nm to the northwest of the cold front. A second
surface trough about 270 nm to the northwest of the first trough.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 320 nm to the east of the cold front from 23N northward,
and in the waters that are from Puerto Rico to 20N within 120 nm
to the west of the cold front. Isolated moderate is elsewhere
within 600 nm to the east of the cold front. Strong to near gale-
force southerly winds are from 28N northward between 45W and the
cold front. Moderate to fresh winds are in the remainder of the
area that is from 50W eastward, and in the Atlantic Ocean that is
from 18N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate or slower wind
speeds are in remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough
seas are within 370 nm to the east of the cold front from 29N
northward.

A surface ridge extends from a 34N20W 1029 mb high pressure
center, through 31N29W 28N36W 25N42W 23N49W 16N59W.

A weakening cold front extending from 31N56W to the Virgin
Islands will shift east of the area through Wed ahead of
relatively weak high pressure building eastward along 30N through
the weekend. This pattern will allow for fresh to strong east
winds to develop over the waters south of 24N, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun. These conditions
will begin to improve late on Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to move over the waters off northeast Florida on Sat and
stall through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northeast winds will
follow in behind the front along with seas building to 8 or 9 ft
in northeast swell.

$$
mt/ec
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