[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051615
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over northern Central America: A surface trough
along the northern coast of Honduras and abundant tropical
moisture continue to produce numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection over the Gulf of Honduras. This activity is also
impacting portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Belize,
northern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. More storms could develop
inland this afternoon and evening due to the diurnal heating. The
unstable weather conditions will persist through midweek.
Flooding is already occurring across the region. Mudslides are
likely in higher terrain areas. Refer to the local weather
services for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau and continues southwestward to 07N27W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N27W westward to 06N40W and to 07N55W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident on satellite
imagery from 03N to 09N and east of 37W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 10N and between 38W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the southern United States encompasses the Gulf
of Mexico and allows for dry continental air to dominate the
basin. This pattern suppresses the development of deep convection.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are
prevalent over most of the Gulf. However, moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the northern and western Gulf.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient across the SE half of the
basin will support moderate to fresh NE winds S of 25N through
tonight. Seas to 9 ft across the Yucatan Channel will gradually
subside today. Relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected
from Mon onward as high pressure settles across the NE Gulf and
dominates the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about heavy rains
impacting the western Caribbean and Central America.

A few showers are found near the ABC islands and off northern
Colombia. The rest of the basin is under a dry airmass that
suppresses the development of deep convection. Moderate or weaker
easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the Caribbean
Sea. The highest seas are occurring south of Haiti and off NE
Yucatan.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure over Central America
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms
across the Caribbean W of 82W. This active weather is expected to
persist across the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Fresh northeast
winds and rough seas associated with a tight pressure gradient
across the northwestern Caribbean will weaken Mon. Easterly trade
winds will return to the basin Tue and become fresh across central
portions Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 31N73W
to SE Florida. Behind the cold front, moderate to fresh northerly
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present. Ahead of the front, a weak
surface trough extends from 31N72W to the central Bahamas. A few
showers are found north of 26N and between the trough axis and
66W. Weak high pressure dominates the remainder of the SW North
Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

An upper level trough northeast of the Leeward Islands is forcing
a surface trough in the vicinity and a few showers are seen on
satellite imagery to the east of the Lesser Antilles. A strong
high pressure system of 1033 mb is located west of the Azores and
dominates the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front enters
the NE Atlantic through the coast of Morocco near 31N09W and
continues westward to 28N61W and to 30N36W. A few showers are
present near the boundary. A scatterometer satellite pass from a
few hours ago captured fresh to strong winds behind the cold
front. Wave heights of 12-19 ft associated with a significant
northerly swell are found behind the cold front. The highest seas
are occurring off Morocco. Rough seas are noted north of 22N to
the cold front and east of 40W. Elsewhere in the central and
eastern Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas of moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N74W to S
Florida this morning, and will move SE and gradually dissipate
across the central Bahamas on Mon. Fresh N to NE winds and large
NE swell prevail today behind the front across the offshore waters
of Florida, where seas are interacting with the Gulfstream.
Expect winds and seas to diminish tonight. Relatively weak high
pressure will settle in over the region from the NW early Wed
through Thu and act to freshen trade winds to the S of 24N.

$$
DELGADO
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