[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over northern Central America: A surface trough
along the northern coast of Honduras and abundant tropical
moisture continue to produce numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection over the Gulf of Honduras. This activity is also
impacting portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Belize,
northern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. More storms could develop
inland this afternoon and evening due to the diurnal heating. THe
unstable weather conditions will persist through midweek. Flooding
is already occurring across the region. Mudslides are likely in
higher terrain areas. Refer to the local weather services for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau and continues southwestward to 07N27W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N27W westward to 06N40W and to 07N55W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident on satellite
imagery from 03N to 09N and east of 37W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 10N and between 38W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the southern United States encompasses the Gulf
of Mexico and allows for dry continental air to dominate the
basin. This pattern suppresses the development of deep convection.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are
prevalent over most of the Gulf. However, moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the northern and western Gulf.

For the forecast, .

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about heavy rains
impacting the western Caribbean and Central America.

A few showers are found near the ABC islands and off northern
Colombia. The rest of the basin is under a dry airmass that
suppresses the development of deep convection. Moderate or weaker
easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the Caribbean
Sea. The highest seas are occurring south of Haiti and off NE
Yucatan.

For the forecast, .

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 31N73W
to SE Florida. Behind the cold front, moderate to fresh northerly
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present. Ahead of the front, a weak
surface trough extends from 31N72W to the central Bahamas. A few
showers are found north of 26N and between the trough axis and
66W. Weak high pressure dominates the remainder of the SW North
Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

An

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh northeast winds and large NE
swell prevail today behind the front across the offshore waters of
NE Florida and Georgia where seas are interacting with the
Gulfstream. Expect winds and seas to diminish this evening.
Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region Tue
through Thu and freshen trade winds to the S of 24N.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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