[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Deep layered low pressure covers the Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon, and has become nearly stationary. The center of this
cyclonic circulation is over the NE Gulf, where a 1008 mb surface
low is analyzed near 26N86W. Bands of moderate convection cover
most of the NE Gulf and also extend from the Straits of Florida
across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel, but are well removed
from the center of the surface low. This feature has been
designated "AL91", and is being monitored for possible tropical
development. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for some slow development over the next day or two as this system
meanders about the NE Gulf. However, by the weekend,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
additional development as this system drifts southeastward toward
the Florida Peninsula. Due to the support from the deep layered
low pressure system, heavy rainfall is possible across the Florida
Peninsula over the weekend. This system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

Additional information on the rainfall and associated flooding
potential can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office, and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
issued by the Weather Prediction Center.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An active tropical wave is analyzed along 14W south of 13N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. However, the latest satellite animations
suggest strong cyclonic turning along 20-21W. Scattered clusters
of moderate to strong convection are noted from 03.5N to 11N
between 09W-26W. A large cluster of strong convection is inland
behind the wave between 08W and 15W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 43W south of
13N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from the ITCZ to 08.5N between 38W and 46W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 60W south of
15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has been repositioned
farther west than at 1200 UTC, based on a morning ASCAT pass
showing fresh to strong SE surface winds behind the wave axis to
55W. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in this area of winds. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted behind the wave from 05N to
12N between 48W and 56W. Isolated clusters of moderate convection
are just ahead of the wave between 60W and 61W, to the S of 15N.

The Caribbean Sea tropical wave previously along from 77N is no
longer discernible. Low to middle level winds across Colombia and
the SW Caribbean are generally S to SE and cyclonic turning is not
seen. Active afternoon convection is occurring across Colombia and
Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W then continues SW to near 05N27W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N27W to 04.5N40W to 06N52W. Most of the convection
is related to the tropical waves mentioned above in the Tropical
Waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the special features section above for specific information on
the low pressure center that has formed across the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Moderate to very localized fresh E to NE winds are
occurring across the N semicircle of the surface low, between 26N
and 29N. Buoy observations and recent altimeter data indicate wave
heights of 3 to 4 ft across this are, suggesting that winds are
still less than 20 kt. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail
across the remainder of the Gulf W of 90W, where skies are clear
to partly cloudy, and seas 1 to 3 ft.

Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of
the eastern Gulf through Fri night as the upper level low shifts
slowly eastward. Winds associated with the surface low are
forecast to become fresh over the NE Gulf beginning tonight. The
surface low should move eastward over Florida and into the
Atlantic Ocean during the weekend. In its wake, moderate to
occasional fresh N winds are expected in the eastern Gulf through
late Mon. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high pressure should
lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend and into early
next week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of
Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over the
NW Caribbean ahead of an upper-level trough located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, and extend a broken band of convection
from eastern Cuba to interior portions along the border of
Nicaragua and Honduras. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough is
helping to transport abundant tropical moisture from the eastern
Pacific region across Central America into the NW Caribbean.
Locally heavy rain has been reported over parts of Cuba, with a
rainfall amount of near 3 inches (70 mm)in Havana in only three
hours. This convective activity is also affecting the Cayman
Islands and Jamaica. Abundant moisture will persist across this
area on Thu maintaining the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms.

Recent scatterometer data indicated moderate to locally fresh ESE
to SE trades across the eastern and central Caribbean, with seas
of 3-6 ft. In the NW Caribbean, an moderate to fresh SE winds
prevail. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and seas in
the 2-3 ft range are noted.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic
through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N
coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds will become moderate from
the S over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night,
then generally light Mon and Mon night, ahead of a trough that is
expected to move into the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate W
to NW wind are expected behind the trough.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to numerous moderate convection, with isolated strong
cells, prevails across much of the area from Florida to 69W, to
the east and on the unstable side of the large and deep layered
upper low over the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed
E of Florida and extends from 31N74W across the NW Bahamas to
near 26N80W. Moderate SE to S winds are found on the SE side of
the trough to 65W, and are NE to E on the NW side of the trough.
Seas are 3-5 ft SE of the trough to 65W and 2 to 4 ft NW of the
trough.

A cold front is nearly stationary from 31N42W to 30N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of this front
between 50W and 60W. Another cold front is over the eastern
Atlantic and runs from 31N19W to 25.5N31W. A broken band of
mainly low clouds with possible showers is along to the front.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the
influence of a 1021 mb high center located near 24N44W. The
associated ridge extends westward to 65W. Mainly moderate trades
are noted per scatterometer data across the tropical Atlantic S of
18N with seas of 4-7 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted along
the ridge axis.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough located E of
Florida will be the focal point for scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. Similar activity
will be present to the east of the trough as well. A broad area of
low pressure is expected to form along this trough Thu night to
the southwest of Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend
from 30N67W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds may cover a
large area with this low as it shifts E along a frontal boundary
to the S of Bermuda on Fri. At the same time, another broad area
of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week
will move E across Florida and into the western Atlantic over the
weekend. As a result, increasing winds and building seas are
likely between Florida and 55W this weekend. Fresh to locally
strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected N of 27N and W
of 74W Sun through Mon night in the wake of a cold front. This
cold front should reach from near 31N63W to the central Bahamas by
late Mon night.

$$
Stripling
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