[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An active tropical wave is along 13W south of 14N, moving W at 10
to 15 kt. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection is
noted ahead of the wave axis covering the waters from 05N-13N
between 14W-22W. Another cluster of moderate to strong convection
is inland behind the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 42 south of 14N
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 04N-08N between 40W-45W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W south of 16N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either
side of the wave axis from 06N-15N between 48W-58W. Recent
scatterometer data suggest that the wave axis is farther W along
58W with fresh to strong E to SE winds behind the wave axis. This
wave will be relocated on the 1800 UTC surface map. Moisture
associated with this wave will spread across the Windward Islands
by this evening or tonight.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along from 77N south of 16N
into western Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the
monsoon trough, particularly from from 09N-11N between 75W-78W.
This convective activity is affecting parts of the coast of
NW Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W then continues SW to near 05N27W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N27W to 04.5N40W to 06N52W. Most of the convection
is related to the tropical waves mentioned above in the Tropical
Waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low has developed over the NE Gulf near 26N87W, with a
trough extending from the low center to near 22N92W. Enhanced showers
and thunderstorms are expected across most of the eastern half of
the Gulf today into Fri. Winds associated with this system are
forecast to be fresh over the NE Gulf beginning tonight. The low
center is well defined on visible satellite imagery, with most of
the convective active to the E of the low. A band of showers and
thunderstorms is associated with the associated trough. A mid to
upper-level trough extends over the eastern Gulf with an upper-
level low spinning near 28N88W supporting the low/trough at the
surface. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for
some slow development over the next day or two as the system
meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this
weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for additional development as the system drifts southeastward
towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, the
system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions
of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. The latest Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a low change of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours, and also during the next 7
days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by
the Weather Prediction Center.

Over the western Gulf, light to gentle anticyclonic flow is
observed, with light and variable winds over the Bay of Campeche
due to the presence of a weak surface ridge. For the forecast,
high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the
weekend, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of
Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over the NW Caribbean
ahead of an upper-level trough located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough is helping to transport
abundant tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific region across
Central America into the NW Caribbean. Locally heavy rain has been
reported over parts of Cuba, with a rainfall amount of near 3 inches
(70 mm)in Havana in only three hours. This convective activity is
also affecting the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. Abundant moisture
will persist across this area on Thu maintaining the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms.

Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh trades
across the eastern and central Caribbean, with seas of 3-5 ft. In
the NW Caribbean, an area of fresh to strong SE winds is seen in
the lee of Cuba likely associated with the convective activity in
this area. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds with seas
in the 2-3 ft range prevail.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic
through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N
coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly moderate
over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night ahead of
a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed E of Florida and extends from 31N72W
across the NW Bahamas to near 25N80W. Multi-layer clouds with
embedded showers and thunderstorms are related to the trough
covering most of the waters N of 20N W of 70W, including the
Bahamas. A diffluent pattern aloft, ahead of the upper-level
trough located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is helping to
induce this convective activity. Moderate winds are on either
side of the trough, higher near thunderstorms.

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N44W and continues
westward to near 29N52W where it becomes stationary to beyond
31N62W. Some shower activity is within about 90 nm N of the
stationary front. Another cold front is over the eastern Atlantic
and runs from 31N20W to 26N32W. A broken band of mainly low clouds
with possible showers is related to the front. The remainder of
the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1021 mb
located near 24N43W. The associated ridge reaches the NE Caribbean.
Mainly moderate trades are noted per scatterometer data across the
tropical Atlantic with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are
noted along the ridge axis.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough located E of
Florida will be the focal point for scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. A broad area of
low pressure is expected to form along this trough Thu night to
the southwest of Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend
from 30N67W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds may cover a
large area with this low as it slides E along a cold front to the
S of Bermuda on Fri. At the same time, another broad area of low
pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move E across Florida
and into the western Atlantic over the weekend. As a result,
increasing winds and building seas are likely between Florida and
60W this weekend. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are
expected offshore northeast Florida Sun and Sun night behind a
cold front.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net