[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 18W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03N to 10N between 15W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 32W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 30W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 44W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Isolated moderate convection
is noted from 08N to 11N between 42W and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 57W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. There is no significant
convection noted over waters, but scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted over land within 60 nm of the wave axis
S of 07N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 70W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. There is no significant
convection noted over waters, but scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted over land within 60 nm of the wave axis
S of 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W to
06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 04N30W. It resumes from
04N32W to 04N42W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 09N between 22W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1016
mb high pressure center near 29N88W. Light to gentle winds
prevail across the area, with seas in the 1-2 ft range.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through the end
of the week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of
Yucatan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted S of 15N to the coast of
South America. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere E of
80W, with light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean. Seas
are in the 4-5 ft range S of 15N between 65W and 78W, 2-4 ft
elsewhere E of 80W, and 1-2 ft W of 80W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic
through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the
N coast of Venezuela and Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N72W to northern Florida. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of
20N. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are noted from
15N to 20N E of 23W to the coast of Africa. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are elsewhere S of 21N. Moderate to
locally fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are also found N of 29N
between 30W and 40W, with moderate winds N of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, generally
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak pressure pattern will result in
quiescent conditions through Fri. A broad area of low pres may
form north of the Bahamas on Fri with increasing winds and
building seas over the waters east of the Bahamas on Sat.

$$
AL
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