[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean is along 16W/17W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between 10W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from
12N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is between 20W and the 30W/31W tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between
the 30W/31W tropical and the 43W tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from
11N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between the 43W tropical and the 56W/57W tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from
14N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward
between 64W and 71W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 14N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots,
through eastern Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 16N southward between 62W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough from Africa into the Atlantic Ocean
is broken up by the 16W/17W tropical wave. The monsoon
trough is along 09N18W 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from
06N23W, to 04N29W and 04N40W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure pattern is weak. A 1016 mb high
pressure center is about 95 nm to the south of coastal
Alabama. Light to gentle winds are in the NE Gulf.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds are in the rest of
the Gulf of Mexico. the sea heights are reaching 2 feet
from the waters that are offshore the middle Texas Gulf
coast, into the south central Gulf, into the SW corner
of the area. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet offshore
Louisiana. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere.

Broad surface low pressure is from 27N southward from
90W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 87W westward. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere.

A weak pressure pattern will support gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas across the basin through the end
of the week, with occasional fresh pulses along the
W coast of Yucatan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that
ended at 29/1200 UTC, are: 1.08 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica, and 0.78 in Trinidad, according to the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN. The monsoon trough passes through 09N74W
in Colombia, beyond 11N in Costa Rica. Precipitation:
scattered strong is from 13N southward between 77W
and 82W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
spread throughout the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate E to SE winds are from 70W eastward. Fresh SE
winds are within 180 nm to the east of the 68W/69W tropical
wave, and within 120 nm to the west of the 68W/69W tropical
wave, from 14N southward. Moderate E winds are from the
Greater Antilles southward between 70W and 80W. Gentle
wind speeds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 4 feet from 80W eastward. An exception is for sea heights
of 6 feet offshore Santa Marta in Colombia. The sea heights
are reaching 1 foot elsewhere. An exception is
for sea heights of 2 feet offshore La Ceiba in Honduras.

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate
trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic
through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along
the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia and off Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N72W 29N77W, beyond SE Georgia
at 31N. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate,
and isolated to locally strong, is from 20N northward from
60W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the
period that ended at 29/1200 UTC, are: 1.74 in Nassau in
the Bahamas, 0.05 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.01 in
Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Cyclonic moderate and
gentle winds, with some fresh winds, are from 26N
northward from 70W westward. Moderate and slower wind
speeds are elsewhere from 26N southward from 70W westward.

A surface ridge passes through 31N14W, across the Canary
Islands, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near
25N26W, to a second 1020 mb high pressure center that is
near 25N40W, to the northern half of the Bahamas. Broad
and gentle anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean that is from 16N northward.

A frontal boundary is along 31N between 38W and 70W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 26N northward between 20W and 60W. Strong SW winds
are from 30N northward between 33W and 42W. Fresh SW winds
are elsewhere from 28N northward between 30W and 45W.
Moderate SW winds are in the remainder of the area that
is from 27N northward between 20W and 47W, and from 28N
northward between 47W and 56W. Gentle anticyclonic wind
flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean that is from
20N northward from 70W eastward. Moderate NE winds cover
much of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N southward.
Some exceptions are for: fresh winds that are from 13N
to 20N from 28W eastward; from 06N to 10N between 26W and
34W; and from 13N southward between 50W and 56W.
The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet from 10W
eastward. The sea heights are 2 feet or less in the
areas of the Bahamas. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet elsewhere.

A weak pressure pattern will result in quiescent
conditions through Fri. A surface trough may form east
of Florida on Thu and Fri.

$$
mt/cl
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