[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring along the
axis of the tropical wave from 05N to 08N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 11N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 12N between 37W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 10N
between 52W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 13N southward to
Venezuela, moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are near
the axis of the tropical wave with most activity occurring in
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W to 12N18W. The ITCZ continues from 12N18W to 06N23W,
then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N27W to 06N39W, then
continues W of another tropical wave from 05N41W to 05N52W.
Outside of the convection associated with tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N and E of 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated showers are noted moving across the western Gulf. A 1017
mb high pres is noted in the north-central Gulf near 30N90W.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail across the basin with
seas to 2 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through early this
week. Weak low pressure may form over the western Gulf by the
middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted across the central
Caribbean from 11N to 21N between 74W and 83W. In the eastern and
central Caribbean, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail. Locally
fresh winds are noted near northern Venezuela. Seas in this area
range 2-4 ft. In the western Caribbean, light to gentle winds are
noted with seas to 2 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds across the Caribbean through mid week, with
occasional fresh pulses along the northern coast of South American
and off Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends through the northern Bahamas
from 31N75W to 25N79W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the front and to the east of it from 20N to 31N between 61W
and 79W. Light to gentle winds mostly prevail across the area with
moderate westerly winds off the NE Florida coast. Seas range 4-6
ft.

In the Central Atlantic, ridging extends across the area anchored
by a 1020 mb high pres near 29N52W. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds are noted beneath the high pres with gentle to moderate
easterly winds are noted S of 24N. High pres also extends across
the eastern Atlantic with light to gentle winds. Seas are to 4 ft
across the central and eastern Atlantic. Showers are noted moving
across the Canary Islands and Western Sahara.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will result in
quiescent conditions through Fri.

$$
AReinhart
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