[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either side
of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from
12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
620 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within
420 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from
12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm
to the east of the tropical wave, and within 75 nm
to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 14N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots,
through eastern Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 16N southward between 62W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ is along 03N26W
03N38W 03N41W 05N44W 04N50W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 08N
from 24W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure pattern is flat and weak. Gentle and
some moderate winds span the entire area. The sea heights
range from 2 feet to 3 feet.

A 1008 mb is near 29N99W in inland Texas. The GFS model for
250 mb shows a weak trough in the westernmost parts of
the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is within 120 nm of the coast of
Mexico from 23N to the border with Texas. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm of the coast
of Texas from the border with Mexico to the middle Texas
Gulf coast.

A weak pressure pattern will support gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas across the basin through early
this week. Weak low pressure may form over the western
Gulf by the middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that
ended at 28/1200 UTC, are: 1.29 in Trinidad, 0.07 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.05 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, according
to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh ENE to E trade winds are from 80W eastward.
Gentle or slower wind speeds are elsewhere. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 4 feet from Jamaica eastward. The sea
heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere.

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate
trade winds across the Caribbean through mid week, with
occasional fresh pulses along the northern coast of South
American and off Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N75W 25N79W,
ending near the NW Bahamas. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 60W
and the dissipating front. The sea heights are ranging from
6 feet to 9 feet from 70W westward. Fresh SW to W winds are
from 30N northward in the western semicircle of the a coastal
1007 mb 33N79W low pressure center. 24-hour rainfall totals
in inches, for the period that ended at 28/1200 UTC, are:
0.16 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.09 in Bermuda, according
to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N48W. Broad and
gentle anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
to the north of the line 25N15W 19N34W 24N44W 24N57W
23N71W. Strong NE winds are from 17N to 22N from 21W
eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 13N to 24N from 25W
eastward. Moderate winds are elsewhere from the
25N15W-23N71W line southward. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet from 22N southward. An exception is for
the range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 06N southward from
30W eastward.

A stationary front from 31N75W to the northern Bahamas
will dissipate today. Moderate westerly winds in the
vicinity of the front will diminish through the day.
Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern will result in
quiescent conditions through Thu.

$$
mt/al
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