[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in Panama, Colombia and Venezuela:
A pronounced upper level trough extends southwestward,
from Hispaniola into northern Colombia. The upper level
trough has been interacting with the monsoon trough that
is in Panama and northwestern Colombia. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 05N to 10N between
70W and 75W. Scattered strong is in Venezuela from 06N
to 09N between 62W and 65W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are
elsewhere from 03N to 12N in Venezuela and Colombia, and
in the coastal waters of those countries. More cloudiness
and other possible rainshowers are in the remainder of
the area that is to the south of 17N62W 15N70W to
NE Nicaragua. This trend will continue through at least
Monday.

Please, refer to the latest forecasts from your local
meteorological agencies for more information.

Volcanic Ash from Popocatepetl: The Popocatepetl Volcano
continues in a state of unrest. Volcanic ash is expected to
reach the SW Gulf of Mexico waters mainly from 25N southward
and from 94W westward. It is possible that some of the ash
may be reaching the surface, which may reduce the
visibilities for marine operations. Mariners should
exercise caution. Any mariner, who encounters volcanic ash
or floating volcanic debris, is encouraged to report this
observation to the National Hurricane Center,
by calling 001-305-229-4424.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 12N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 05N to
07N between 36W and 38W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm
to the east of the tropical wave from 07N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along
08N20W 06N25W 05N33W. Precipitation: disorganized isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area
that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 10N to 16N between 50W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about possible volcanic ash in the southwestern corner
of the area.

A cold front extends from a south central Georgia 1012 mb
low pressure center, to 27N90W and 27N92W in the Gulf of
Mexico. A dissipating cold front continues from 27N92W,
to NE Mexico just to the south of the border with Texas.
A surface trough extends from the 1012 mb low pressure
center to SW Florida. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally
strong, are from 25N northward between 75W in the
Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Similar
clouds and precipitation are from 26N northward from
85W westward, and in the SW corner of the area.

The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the SW corner of
the area. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere.
Gentle to moderate N to NE wind speeds span the entire
area.

Several weak cold fronts will move into and dissipate
in the far northern Gulf of Mexico early this week,
but overall weak high pressure will dominate. This pattern
will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas.
A modest cold front will move S through the eastern Gulf
of Mexico Wed, bringing gentle to moderate NE winds to
the basin. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has
had several large eruptions in the past day and eruptions
continue. Ash has moved ENE away from the volcano and
into parts of the SW Gulf of Mexico, S of 22N and W of 93W.
The visibility may be restricted in this area due to
volcanic ashfall through Mon morning. Mariners should
exercise caution.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about heavy rainfall in parts of Colombia, Panama, and
Venezuela, during the next few days.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from a trough covers the
area from 76W eastward. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is on the western side of the cyclonic wind
flow, from 13N northward between 70W and NE Nicaragua/
E Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N
northward from Puerto Rico westward.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 80W
eastward, and from 1 foot to 2 feet from 80W westward.
Moderate and fresh E to SE winds are from 70W eastward.
Gentle NE winds are in the central one-third of the area,
and in much of the Caribbean Sea from 80W westward.
Moderate NE winds are in the Yucatan Channel.

Elongated low pressure prevails across the Atlantic along
72W tonight, and is disrupting the normal pressure gradient
over the basin. This is leading to mainly gentle winds
across the basin, except for moderate E to SE winds to the
east of 68W. This pattern generally will persist through Thu
as the low pressure gradually moves N then NE and exits the
region. Expect areas of showers and thunderstorms in the
waters E of 69W in the eastern Caribbean and S of 12N in
the SW Caribbean through early this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 25N71W. A surface
trough passes through the low pressure, and it is along
29N74W, to north central coastal Puerto Rico.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong is from 16N in the Caribbean Sea
between 60W and 75W. Fresh to strong SE winds are from
16N northward between 59W and the surface trough.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are on the western side
of the surface trough and low pressure center. The
environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable later today. Tropical development of this
system is not expected, as it moves generally
north-northeastward in the SW Atlantic Ocean from
5 knots to 10 knots during the next couple of days.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from
20N to 27N between 60W and 65W. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 60W
westward.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from
15N northward between 30W and 60W. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 60W
eastward.

Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 60W eastward. Strong easterly winds
are from 21N to 27N between 43W and 53W, and strong
NE winds are from 14N to 18N between 21W and 26W.
Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 59W eastward.

Low pressure 1010 mb near 25N71.5W will drift slowly
N through Tue, then interact with a cold front
approaching from the NW, and exit the region to the
NE Tue night through Wed. Strong SE to S winds and
rough seas will prevail east of the low to 65W,
accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Another cold front and possible low pressure may move
offshore Florida and impact far NW waters late this week.

$$
mt
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