[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212254
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in Panama, Colombia and Venezuela:
A pronounced upper-level trough extends southwestward from
Hispaniola across the Caribbean Sea into northern Colombia. It
has been interacting with the monsoon trough over Panama and
northwest Colombia to trigger widespread deep convection across
Panama, northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela, and adjacent
Caribbean waters. This trend will continue through at least
Monday.

Please, refer to the latest forecasts from your local meteorological
agencies for more information.

Volcanic Ash from Popocatepetl: The Popocatepetl Volcano continues
in a state of unrest, producing volcanic ash that is expected to
reach the SW Gulf of Mexico waters mainly S of 25N and W of 94W.
Some of this ash may be reaching the surface, which could produce
reduced visibilities for marine operations. Mariners should
exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating
volcanic debris...you are encouraged to report this observation to
the National Hurricane Center by calling 001-305-229-4424.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 16W
and S of 13N, moving westward about 10 kt. Much drier air at the
lower level is limited shower coverage.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 12N
southward, moving westward about 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 08N19W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 08N19W to 07N33W, then resumes
from 05N37W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ between 22W-31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer the Special Features section above for information on
possible volcanic ash in the southwestern Gulf waters.

A weak cold front extends across the northern Gulf waters from
30N85W to 26N97W. Scattered showers are occurring along and north
of this boundary. A surface trough is analyzed across the eastern
Bay of Campeche with no convection at this time. Gentle to
moderate N to NE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the
entire basin.

For the forecast, several weak cold fronts will move into and
dissipate over the far northern Gulf of Mexico early this week,
but overall weak high pressure will dominate. This will lead to
light to gentle winds and slight seas. A slightly stronger front
will move through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wed, bringing gentle
to moderate NE winds to the basin. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico
near 19N99W has had several large eruptions in the past day and
eruptions continue. Ash has moved ENE away from the volcano and
over portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico, S of 22N and W of 94W.
Visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall
through at least tonight. Mariners should exercise caution.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section on heavy rainfall
across Panama and parts of Colombia and Venezuela.

An upper level low/trough N of Hispaniola combined with a surface
trough/low is enhancing scattered moderate convection over
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, including the Mona Passage. Moderate E
to SE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident over the eastern
basin. Gentle to ENE to ESE trades with 2 to 4 ft seas are found
at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, with low pressure north of the area, the normal
pressure gradient has been disrupted over the basin, leading to
mainly gentle winds across the basin. Areas of showers and
thunderstorms will prevail over waters E of 69W in the eastern
Caribbean and S of 12N in the SW Caribbean early this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad low centered near 24N71W is producing a large area of
disturbed weather, extending a couple hundred miles northeast of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable later today and tropical development of this system is
not expected as it moves generally north-northeastward over the
southwestern Atlantic at 5 to 10 kt during the next couple of
days. Scattered moderate convection prevails with this feature
between 60W-72W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
present just east of the low from 21N to 26N between 66W and 70W.
Moderate to fresh NE to ESE trades with 6 to 7 ft seas are noted
north of 16N between 35W and 73W. Farther west, light to gentle
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in moderate easterly swell exist north
of 20N between 73W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to
moderate ENE to E trades and seas at 5 to 6 ft are present from
05N to 16N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary
and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE
to NE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell
dominate north of 11N between the Africa coast and 35W. Light to
gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of northerly and
southerly swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low will drift N over the next
couple of days before meeting a cold front and lifting NE and away
from the area by mid-week. Strong SE to S winds and rough seas
will from east of this low pressure early this week, along with
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front and
possible low pressure may move offshore Florida and impact far NW
waters late this week.

$$
ERA
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