[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in W Colombia and E Panama: A deepening
upper level Caribbean Sea trough is interacting with broad
low pressure in Colombia and Panama, and with the monsoon
trough. The monsoon trough passes through 08N/09N between
74W in Colombia and beyond southern Costa Rica.
Precipitation: scattered strong covers the areas that are
from 07N to 12N between Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela
and 81W. This precipitation is covering the coastal waters
and the inland areas that are between Costa Rica and
Venezuela. These conditions will continue during the
weekend. Expect the potential for heavy rainfall in the same
areas through early Monday, then it will shift eastward, to the
rest of Colombia and to Venezuela, from Monday through early
Tuesday.

Please, refer to the latest forecasts from your local
or national meteorological service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 06N
between 29W and 32W, and from 01N to 03N between 29W and
31W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13W/14W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
13N southward between 10W and 20W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 10N15W, to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from
05N22W, to 04N29W 03N36W 04N47W. Precipitation: disorganized
isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 29N86W, off the coast
of the Florida Panhandle. The surface pressure gradient is
flat and weak. A cold front passes through SW Louisiana, to
the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are from 90W westward.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the SW corner
of the area. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere.
Fresh NE winds are within 200 nm of the western coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 26N
southward from 90W westward. Gentle to moderate wind speeds
cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through early next week, inducing light to gentle winds and
slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night
W of the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds
ahead of it. A weak frontal trough will sink into the
northern Gulf Mon, and gradually produce gentle to moderate
N to NE winds across the entire basin by Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about heavy rainfall for Colombia and Panama, during
the next few days.

A surface trough is from 27N72W in the Atlantic Ocean,
crossing the western sections of Haiti, to 17N73W just
to the south of Haiti. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is from 16N northward between 64W and 77W.

SE-to-E mostly fresh to some moderate winds are from
Hispaniola eastward. NE mostly moderate to some fresh
winds are elsewhere from 17N southward. Moderate and
fresh northerly winds are within 75 nm of the coast
of Cuba from 80W to NW Cuba. Gentle winds cover the
rest of the NW corner of the area. The sea heights are
ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet in the coastal waters
of Venezuela, and from 1 foot to 2 feet from
Nicaragua northward into the NW corner of the area.
Expect the sea heights to range from 4 feet to 5 feet
elsewhere. An exception is for a maximum of 6 feet
between 66W and 67W about 210 nm to the north of
Venezuela.

A very modest pressure gradient across the basin will
lead to gradually diminishing tradewinds and slight to
moderate seas over the Caribbean E of 80W into the
middle of next week, as an inverted surface trough
develops N of the area along 72W tonight and slowly
lifts northward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will impact waters near the coasts of South America
and Panama as well as Caribbean waters E of 68W
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is from 27N72W in the Atlantic Ocean,
crossing the western sections of Haiti, to 17N73W just
to the south of Haiti. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the east
of the surface trough, from the Greater Antilles to 30N.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire
Atlantic Ocean.

The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 05N
northward from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from
3 feet to 5 feet from 05N southward from 60W eastward.
One slight exception is for the range from 6 feet to
8 feet from 18N to 29N between 37W and 50W. A second
exception is for the seas to range from 3 feet
to 5 feet from 23N to 28N from 20W eastward. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 60W westward.

Mostly fresh to some moderate NE-to-E winds are from
60W eastward. Fresh to moderate SE and E winds, and
some strong winds, are within 420 nm to the east of
the 27N72W 17N73W surface trough from 27N southward.
Moderate winds are elsewhere from 60W westward.

The Atlantic high pressure ridge is centered on the
Azores high along 34W and extends SW to near 60W.
An inverted trough is developing along 72W tonight and
will become better defined through Wed as it drifts
N-NE. Scattered showers and thunderstorms and
freshening S to SE winds are expected near and E
of the trough axis through Wed night. Another trough
may move off the SE US coast and impact far NW waters
late next week.

$$
mt
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