[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in W Colombia and E Panama: A deepening
upper-level trough across the Caribbean is interacting with the
Colombian/Panamanian low and the monsoon trough. This results in a
large area of deep convection just south of Panama and also
affecting western Colombia. These conditions will continue over
the weekend. It will also lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
across this area through early Mon, then will shift eastward
across the remainder of Colombia and Venezuela Mon through early
Tue.

Please refer to the latest forecast products from your local
or national meteorological service for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 12W,
S of 14N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over the coastal waters of Africa N of 02N and
E of 18W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W,
S of 13N and moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N-08N between 28W-31W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea near 11N15W and extends to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to 05N27W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near
05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves described above, no
convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the western Gulf waters mainly
W of 95W. Light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through early next week, inducing light to gentle winds and
slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of
the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it. A
weak trough will sink into the northern Gulf Mon, and gradually
produce gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the entire basin
by Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft over the Bahamas is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms and some of these showers are affecting
the waters south of Hispaniola. A few thunderstorms are also
impacting the nearshore waters near the Panama and Colombia
border. A dry airmass is suppressing the storm activity in the
rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The extensive subtropical ridge northeast of the Greater Antilles
supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds across the
central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft,
with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin
will lead to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas over
the east and central Caribbean into early next week as an inverted
surface trough develops N of the area along 71W and slowly lifts
northward. Showers and thunderstorms will impact waters near the
coasts of South America and Panama as well as Caribbean waters E
of 68W through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed over southern Bahamas along 72W. This
trough is the reflection of upper level trough aloft producing a
large area of scattered moderate convection between 65W-74W.
To the west, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N64W to 31N61W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge that is positioned north of the Azores and
maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are noted over the vast majority of the basin,
especially east of 70W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent west of 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue near and E of the trough axis over the W
Atlantic through Wed night. Another trough may move off the SE US
coast and impact far NW waters late next week.

$$
ERA
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