[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 21.5W, from 00N to 11N.
Westward motion is approximately 5 knots due to slow 700 mb
winds, and this slow forward motion is expected to continue over
the next couple of days. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 08N between 17W and 25W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N24W to 02N37W to the coast of far NE Brazil near
03N51W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the ITCZ
is from 02N to 06N between 42W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The frontal boundary in the north-central Gulf has dissipated as
of 0300 UTC. Weak high pressure of 1011 mb is located near
23N94W in the southwest Gulf. Light winds prevail across the
Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted
within 60 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will continue to dominate
the weather pattern across the Gulf region through the upcoming
weekend producing mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas.
However, winds and seas could be higher near showers and
thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast at
night near and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu night,
increasing to moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Light to gentle trades are found over the NW Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft across most
of the basin, increasing to locally 5 ft in the south-central
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a ridge axis across the central Bahamas
tonight is producing a very weak pressure gradient across the
Caribbean Basin. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to
moderate seas are expected over the east and central Caribbean
while light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the
NW Caribbean through Thu. Winds will increase to moderate to
fresh speeds across the south-central Caribbean, including the
Gulf of Venezuela Thu night through Sat night as high pressure
builds modestly N of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1014 mb high pressure was centered near 24N75W at 0000 UTC,
though more recent data suggests this high pressure has
degenerated into a ridge axis. The tropical Atlantic is quite
quiet. The Azores High is supporting moderate to fresh trades
over the northeastern discussion waters. Trades are gentle to
moderate elsewhere, except in the northwestern waters where
winds are light. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 60W, and 4-7 ft
elsewhere in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will build modestly
across the regional waters late Thu through the weekend. Low
pressure is forecast to develop along a frontal boundary just
off the SE U.S. late Thu, then move toward Cape Hatteras by late
Fri, with strong winds and rough seas expected to remain north
of 31N. A surface trough is also expected to develop over the NE
waters by Thu night. A weak low may develop along the trough
axis late on Fri. Expect increasing winds and building seas to 8
ft across the N waters between 60W and 70W on Fri as a strong
high pressure briefly builds across the region between the two
above mentioned lows.

$$
Mahoney
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