[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W, from 00N to 11N, moving
west around 10 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 20W-23W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N13W to 06.5N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 06.5N16W to 05N19W. It resumes from 04N23W to
03N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 06N between 14W and 20W, and from 01N to 06N between
23W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the Louisiana coast near 29N91W
southwestward to near 25N96W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm SE of the front. Light to gentle winds, and
seas in the 1-2 ft range prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front moving across the northern Gulf
waters will dissipate by Thu. Gentle to moderate westerly winds
are expected in association with this front through tonight. Weak
high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf
region through the upcoming weekend producing mainly light to
gentle winds and slight seas. However, winds and seas could be
higher near showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds are forecast at night near and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula
through Thu night, increasing to moderate to fresh speeds Fri
night through Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Light to gentle winds are found over the NW Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades and slight to
moderate seas are expected over the east and central Caribbean
while light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW
Caribbean. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds across
the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela on
Thu with seas building to 7 or 8 ft near the coast of Colombia.
These marine conditions are forecast to persist through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is noted just east of Florida. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates the discussion waters, anchored by 1031 mb high
pressure centered near 35N31W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas
of 6-8 ft, are noted north of 20N and east of 43W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7
ft range E of 60W, and 3-5 ft W of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is building westward
across the forecast region. This will bring gentle to moderate
southerly winds across the majority of the area through Thu
morning. At the same time, a low pressure area is forecast to
develop along a frontal boundary just off the SE US. This system
is forecast to move toward Cape Hatteras by late Fri, with strong
winds and rough seas expected to remain north of 31N. A surface
trough is also expected to develop over the NE waters by Thu
night. A weak low may develop along the trough axis late on Fri.
Expect increasing winds of 15 to 20 kt and building seas to 8 ft
across the N waters roughly between 60W and 70W on Fri as a strong
high pressure briefly builds across the region between the above
mentioned lows.

$$
AL
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