[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 10N southward between 10W and 20W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ: 04N19W 03N23W
04N26W 03N33W 02N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
strong is within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 26W and
36W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere
from 07N southward between 20W and 52W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW
corner of the area, including inland along the Texas/Mexico
border, and for about 200 nm into Mexico from the border with
Texas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 23N in Mexico to the border with Texas between the coast
and 100W. Isolated moderate is in the NW quadrant of the Gulf of
Mexico. A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 27N95W.

A surface trough extends from SE Louisiana toward the Florida
Keys. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on
either side of the trough.

The sea heights are 2 feet in the western half of the area,
and 1 foot in the eastern half of the area. Mostly gentle winds
are everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Some exceptions are:
moderate NE winds along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from
89W westward; moderate to fresh winds that were in the coastal
sections of Mexico between 94W and 98W.

Weak high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the
Gulf waters this week producing mainly light to gentle winds and
slight seas. Gentle to moderate westerly winds are expected over
the NE Gulf Wed and Wed night as a cold front approaches the area.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast at night near and
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate winds span the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 4 feet from 20N southward from 80W eastward,
and in the SW corner of the area. The sea heights range from
1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. An exception is an isolated area of
3 feet off the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow
with a trough from Nicaragua northward from the Windward Passage
westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate to locally strong, are in much of the
Caribbean Sea.

Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are
expected over the east and central Caribbean while light to gentle
winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean. By Thu
night, winds will increase to moderate to fresh across the south-
central Caribbean, with strong winds possible in the Gulf of
Venezuela and offshore Barranquilla, Colombia. Similar conditions
are expected nightly through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N50W 28N60W 27N70W. A surface trough
continues from 27N70W, to the NW Bahamas. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 25N69W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong, are from the front southward from 50W westward,
and within 120 nm on the northern side of the front from 64W
eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N30W, through 31N39W to 27N53W 25N65W, toward the
central Bahamas.

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet from 13N
northward from 30W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N
northward from 30W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds
are from 04N to 14N between 43W and 53W. Fresh NE winds are from
05N to 27N between 30W and 45W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are
in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 60W eastward. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 5 feet from 60W westward.

A stationary front over the NE waters will dissipate by Wed
morning as high pressure builds across the area. This will bring
gentle to moderate southerly winds across the majority of the area
through Sat. A low pressure area is forecast to develop along a
frontal boundary just off the SE US by Wed night. This system is
forecast to move toward Cape Hatteras by Fri, with strong winds
and rough seas expected to remain north of 31N, in the Ocean
Prediction Center's area of responsibility.

$$
mt/df
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