[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162232
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17W from 02N-12N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the wave from 03N to 07N between 15W-28W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The majority of a monsoon trough is over the African continent.
The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to north of Suriname near 07N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-10N between
38W-56W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean waters
near Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough hugs along the coast from the western Bay of
Campeche northward to southern Texas. Aided by divergent flow at
the mid to upper levels, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted N of 26N and W of 94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong winds over the southern portion of this trough
across the Bay of Campeche. To the E, another surface trough is
analyzed from 24N88W to 30N88W. Otherwise, a modest 1017 mb high
at the northwestern Gulf along with a surface ridge at the
northeastern Gulf are supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 3
ft seas for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters this week maintaining light to
gentle winds and slight seas. However, winds and seas could be
higher near showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate westerly
winds are expected over the NE Gulf Wed and Wed night as a cold
front approaches the area. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
forecast at night near and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through
Thu night increasing to moderate to fresh speeds Fri night and Sat
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Modest convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern basin. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 3 to 5 ft
seas are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate
easterly trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate
seas are expected over the east and central Caribbean while
light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW
Caribbean. Winds are forecast to increase to moderate to fresh
speeds across the south-central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela Thu night through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from the central Atlantic
at 31N51W to east of the northwest Bahamas at 27N72W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted up to 80 nm along either side of
this boundary. Enhanced by an upper-level low near 26N71W,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up from 21N to 26N
between 58W and 70W. Farther west, a surface trough runs parallel
to the Bahamas near 25N76W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present north of
20N between 45W and the Florida-Georgia coast. At the northeast
Atlantic, gentle to moderate to fresh NE trades and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 45W,
including the Canary Islands. To the south, gentle to moderate NNE
to NE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell
exist from 06N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W,
including the Cabo Verde Islands. Farther west, Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found
from 05N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in a mix of northerly and
southerly swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front over the NE waters will lift
northward by tonight. The surface trough near the central Bahamas
will dissipate by tonight as high pressure builds westward across
the forecast region bringing gentle to moderate southerly winds.
A low pres area is forecast to develop along a frontal boundary
just off SE US by Wed night. This system is forecast to move
toward Cape Hatteras by Fri. The strongest winds and the highest
seas associated with this system will remain N of the forecast
area.

$$
ERA
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