[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 11N16W
to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 03N44W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 06N between
05W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the
equator to 08N between 20W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Atlantic
and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh E-
SE winds across the Gulf, except for locally strong winds in
portions of the NW gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft E of 90W, and 5-8 ft
elsewhere W of 90W.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the western
Gulf roughly W of 92W. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium
concentration of smoke over this region of the Gulf, including
the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations in the NW Gulf also
indicate the presence of haze.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the
eastern Gulf waters during the next several days producing mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh
return flow W of 90W. Winds in the western gulf will increase to
fresh to strong speeds today with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night through tonight. Slight to moderate seas
will prevail, reaching 7 or 8 ft in the NW Gulf through Sun under
a persisting SE wind flow. Low pressure over the southern CONUS
and Mexico will dissipate by late Sun and the pressure gradient
across the region will diminish, thus resulting in mainly light to
gentle winds through mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh E
winds across the majority of the basin, in the lee of Cuba where
winds are gentle to locally moderate. East to Northeast winds are
strong in the south-central Caribbean, particularly off the coast
of Colombia where seas have built to 8 ft. Strong winds are also
observed in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 6 ft. Seas of 3-5
ft are elsewhere.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the far NW
Gulf, and has been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras where
the latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean, including
the Gulf of Venezuela, through tonight then mainly moderate to
fresh winds will prevail through Mon. Fresh to strong E winds are
also forecast in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sun night
with seas building to near 8 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds Mon and continue through the
remainder forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 24N62W where it becomes
stationary to the southern Bahamas and north-central Cuba.
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the wake of the
front across the offshore waters E of the Bahamas and to the
north of the Greater Antilles as well as the Florida Straits. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft in this region. In terms of convection, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occuring near the tail end of the
front as indicated by the Geostationary Lighting Mapper. Strong to
gusty winds are likely occuring within this area of convection
between the central Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the Straits
of Florida. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between high
pressure near the Azores and lower pressure over north Africa is
supporting fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas N of 24N and
E of 27W, including the Canary Islands. In the tropics, south of
20N, winds are generally moderate from the NE with 5-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary portion of the front
will dissipate today while the cold portion of it transitions to
a stationary front. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
following the front will prevail across most of the region as high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the
front. The high pressure will shift E of the forecast area on Sun
diminishing the winds to gentle to moderate speeds. A cold front
could reach the north waters late on Mon or Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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