[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 01N38W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from the equator to 08N between
10W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Atlantic
and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh E-
SE winds across the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf, and 5-
7 ft elsewhere.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the SW
Gulf. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration
of smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
Weather observations along the coast of Mexico also indicate the
presence of haze.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the
eastern Gulf waters during the next several days producing
mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to
fresh return flow W of 90W. Winds are forecast to increase to
fresh to strong speeds over the western Gulf tonight into Sat
with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night
through Sat night. Then, winds are forecast to veer to the E
across most of the basin by late Sun into Mon as high pressure
settles over the northern Gulf.
Slight to moderate seas will prevail, reaching 7 or 8 ft in the
NW Gulf through Sun under a persisting SE wind flow.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh E
winds across the majority of the basin, with a few exceptions. E-
NE winds are strong in the south-central Caribbean, particularly
of the coast of Colombia. Strong winds are also observed in the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-central
Caribbean, 6-7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed north of
18N.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the NW
Gulf, and has been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras this
evening. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium
concentration of smoke over the Gulf of Honduras region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Venezuela, tonight and Sat, then mainly
fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong E winds are also
forecast in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night with
seas building to near 8 ft. Fresh NE to E winds may briefly
develop in the Windward Passage tonight. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate trades are forecast basin-wide Mon through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N50W to 24N62W where a stationary
boundary continues to the SE Bahamas.  Scattered moderate
convection is observed along the stationary boundary,
particularly between the Bahamas and Cuba, including the Old
Bahama Channel and Florida Straits. North of the frontal
boundaries, anticyclonic winds are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft
seas. South of the boundaries, winds are gentle to moderate from
the SE-E with 4-5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient
between high pressure near the Azores and lower pressure over
north Africa is supporting fresh NE winds and 6-10 ft seas. In
the tropics south of 20N, winds are generally moderate from the
NE with 5-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N49W
to 24N62W where it becomes stationary to the SE Bahamas and
north-central Cuba. The front will remain nearly stationary on
Sat and lift N on Sun while gradually dissipating. Moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas follow the front.
High pressure building over the western Atlantic in the wake of
the front will support the continuation of moderate to fresh E
winds across the waters E of the Bahamas tonight into Sat. The
high pressure will shift SE toward the NE corner of the forecast
area on Sun diminishing the winds to gentle to moderate speeds.
A cold front could reach the north waters late on Mon or Mon
night.

$$
Flynn
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