[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal
plains of Sierra Leone, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from
05N16W, to the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 44W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface low pressure extends from the Texas Big Bend
southeastward to the coast of Mexico near 20N, and into
parts of the SW Gulf of Mexico. Broad anticyclonic wind
flow covers the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. MVFR
to VFR conditions are in the coastal plains of Texas.
Areas of haze, and visibilities that range from 5 miles to
6 miles, are in parts of Texas from east Texas to the
Deep South of Texas. MVFR conditions are in the coastal
plains of Louisiana and Mississippi, and in SE Alabama.
MVFR and IFR conditions are in the Florida Panhandle.

The wave heights range from: 5 feet to 7 feet in the NW
corner; 3 feet to 6 feet in the SW corner; 4 feet to
5 feet in the central sections; 1 foot to 2 feet near
the Tampa Florida area; and 3 feet to 4 feet in the
rest of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds are in the far eastern parts of the area.
Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere.

A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through
Mon producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W
and moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W. Winds are
forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds over the
western Gulf on Sat with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. Slight
to moderate seas are expected basin-wide through Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak cold front is to the N and NE of the area, from the
central Atlantic Ocean to the Bahamas. Strong easterly
winds are from 16N southward between 68W and 77W. Gentle
to moderate trade winds are from 68W eastward. Moderate
to fresh trade winds cover the rest of the area. Strong
SE winds are from 60 nm to 135 nm to the north of Honduras
from 85W westward. The sea heights range from: 5 feet to
8 feet in the central sections; from 5 feet to 6 feet in
in the Gulf of Honduras; and 1 foot to 4 feet elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
are expected mainly at night in the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat
night. Fresh to strong E winds are also expected in the
Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night with seas
building to 8 ft. Fresh NE to E winds may briefly
develop in the lee of southern Cuba and the Windward
Passage Fri night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N57W, to 29N60W 25N70W,
to the Bahamas near 23N78W to the south of Andros Island.
A surface trough ranges from 130 nm to 210 nm to the
southeast of the cold front. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm
to the southeast of the surface trough, and elsewhere
from 70W westward. A surface trough is along 80W from
Cuba to South Carolina. Strong SE winds are within
120 nm to the east of the surface trough from 31N
northward.

A surface ridge passes through 31N42W to 27N50W, toward
the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet
to 11 feet, are from 27N northward from 25W
eastward. Fresh to strong SW winds are from 22N to
the surface trough between 50W and 60W. Fresh to strong
NE winds are from 15N southward from 54W eastward.
Mostly moderate, to some fresh NE winds, are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range
from 3 feet to 7 feet throughout the rest of the area.

A cold front extending from 31N56W to the SE Bahamas
will reach from near 29N55W to near the SE Bahamas by Fri morning
then stall and gradually dissipate on Sat. Moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds will follow the front with seas briefly
building to 8 ft over the NE waters on Fri. Otherwise, easterly
winds will freshen E of the Bahamas and in the Great Bahama Bank
Fri night into Sat night as high pressure off the Carolinas
strengthens. The high pressure will shift SE toward the NE corner
of the forecast area on Sun producing gentle to moderate E to SE
winds.

$$
mt/gr
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