[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near-gale Conditions at the Eastern Atlantic:

Strong to near-gale northerly winds will persist near the Canary
Islands within the Meteo-France Canarias marine zone for the next
12 hours. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ
continues west-southwestward from 06N15W to 02N27W to 01N41W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N
to 08N between 12W and 27W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 02N to 09N between 28W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure associated with a frontal boundary over New Mexico
extends southward along Mexico and past the western basin to 87W.
High pressure of 1017 mb is anchored over the NE gulf near 28N84W
and is providing to the far eastern gulf gentle to moderate E to
SE winds. However, the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure to the west supports moderate to fresh SE winds and
seas to 6 ft elsewhere. Otherwise, dense fog is being reported
over the NW offshore waters while isolated showers linger over the
NE basin being supported by middle to upper level diffluence and
moisture inflow from the Caribbean.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Mon producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of
90W and moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W. Winds are
forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds over the western
Gulf on Sat with seas building to 9 ft. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each
night through Sat night. Slight to moderate seas are expected
basin-wide through Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

With the passage of a weak cold front N of the area, the pressure
gradient has diminished across the region and with that the area
of strong winds in the south-central Caribbean. Trade winds E of
68W are gentle to moderate while moderate to fresh trades prevail
across the remainder basin, strongest in the Gulf of Honduras, off
the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8
ft in the central Caribbean and 5 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas of 1 to 4 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected mainly at night in the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat night.
Fresh to strong E winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras
at night through Sat night with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh NE to
E winds may briefly develop in the lee of southern Cuba and the
Windward Passage Fri night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds
are forecast basin-wide Mon and Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning about
near-gale conditions forecasted by Meteo-France.

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 28N70W and is supporting a
line of scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Similar
shower activity is in the Great Bahama Bank. The front is preceded
and followed by moderate to locally fresh winds mainly N of 27N.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the forecast waters W of 55W. Surface
ridging associated with the Azores High dominate the remainder
subtropical central and eastern Atlantic waters. Over the central
subtropical waters, winds are mainly moderate from the east along
with 5 to 7 ft seas. Over the far eastern Atlantic, the pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over NW Africa
supports fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft mainly N
of 26N and E of 27W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
29N55W to 24N63W by this evening before stalling over the far
eastern part of the area on Fri. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds will follow the front with seas briefly building to 8 ft
over the NE waters on Fri. Otherwise, easterly winds will freshen
E of the Bahamas and in the Great Bahama Bank Fri night into Sat
night as high pressure off the Carolinas strengthens. The high
will shift E while weakening on Sun, and winds across the area
will diminish to mainly light to gentle by Mon.

$$
Ramos
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