[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon May 8 18:12:27 CDT 2023


AXNT20 KNHC 082312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning from 35W eastward:

The marine forecast from Meteo-France consists of an ongoing
warning for N-NE gale force winds, particulaly between the Canary
Islands, in the marine zone CANARIAS until at least 10/0000 UTC.
Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N45W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N45W
Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 07N
between the coast of West Africa and 25W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed along the length of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge axis extends along the southern US with
lower pressure over northern Mexico and Texas. These features are
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf.
Moderate to fresh E winds are observed in the Florida Straits with
gentle winds closer to the ridge axis in the NE Gulf. Seas are
3-5 ft in the western and southern Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the NE
Gulf.

Hazy conditions, and areas of smoke from agricultural fires, may
be covering parts of the coastal waters of the southwestern corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, and in interior sections of Central
America from NE Nicaragua to southern Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic to the central Gulf will prevail through the forecast
period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Fri night. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds will prevail E of 90W with moderate to
fresh return flow W of 90W. Slight to moderate seas are expected
basin- wide through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh E wind in the central
Caribbean and strong E to NE winds in the south central
Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate
easterlies. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
in the eastern and NW Caribbean.

Hazy conditions, and areas of smoke from agricultural fires, may
be covering interior sections of Central America from NE Nicaragua
to southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central and portions of the
southeast Caribbean through Wed night. Winds will strengthen in
the Gulf of Honduras Wed night and continue through Sat night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the special features section for information of a
gale force wind warning in the eastern Atlantic near the Canary
Islands.

A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N41W
to 24N60W, with a trough extending from the tail end to the
central Bahamas. North of the trough, moderate easterly winds
prevail with light to gentle winds elsewhere. A few showers and
thunderstorms are observed near the trough axis.

In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, the gradient between high
pressure near the Azores and lower pressure over NW Africa is
suporting a large area of fresh to strong NE winds east of 25W.
Seas are 8-10 ft in this area. In the tropical Atlantic south of
20N, winds are generally moderate to fresh from the E-NE with 6-8
ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening stationary front
extending from 25N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands offshore
waters will dissipate this evening. A cold front will move off the
Mid-Atlantic coast Tue. The front will reach the NE Florida
offshore waters Wed morning and extend from near 31N68W to the
northern Bahamas Thu morning before weakening over the far eastern
part of the area Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will
precede and follow the front as it moves across the region.

$$
Flynn
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