[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 08 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning from 35W eastward:

The marine forecast from the Meteo-France consists of
a warning for N-to-NE gale-force winds, in the marine
zone CANARIAS, from 08/1500 UTC until 09/1200 UTC.
Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast,
that is on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border
areas of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, to 06N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N16W, along 05N18W 05N24W 03N33W 04N45W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 02N to 05N
between 18W and 23W. Disorganized widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area,
from the NE corner into the SW corner. A 1021 mb
high pressure center is at the coast of Florida
near 29.5N81W.

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb
shows a trough from Mexico into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb
shows that a weak trough is in parts of Louisiana and
Mississippi. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate, and locally strong, from the Florida Panhandle
into the western half of the Gulf of Mexico.
MVFR-to-VFR conditions are in the coastal plains of the
U.S.A. Gulf coast states, from Texas to the
Florida Big Bend.

Expect moderate to locally fresh return flow, and
sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, in the
entire area.

Hazy conditions, and areas of smoke from agricultural
fires, may be covering parts of the coastal waters
of the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and
in interior sections of Central America from NE
Nicaragua to southern Mexico.

Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to
the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night morning hours
through Fri night. Otherwise, high pressure extending
from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf will
prevail through the forecast period, allowing for
generally gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W
and moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W. Slight to
moderate seas are expected basin-wide through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean dissipating stationary front passes
through 24N60W to 23N77W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 25N southward from
60W westward, possibly reaching the Atlantic Ocean
sides of the Greater Antilles.

A SW North Atlantic Ocean surface ridge extends to the
parts of the northern half of the Caribbean Sea.
Broad surface low pressure is in the northern parts of
Colombia. This pattern continues to support fresh to
strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from
5 feet to 9 feet, in parts of the SE, the SW, and in
the south central Caribbean Sea. The comparatively
highest sea heights are near the coast of Colombia.
Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that are
reaching 4 feet, are elsewhere. An exception is for
fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba.

Hazy conditions, and areas of smoke from agricultural
fires, may be covering interior sections of Central
America from NE Nicaragua to southern Mexico.

The 24-hour rainfall total, for the period that
ended at 08/1200 UTC, is 0.37 in Kingston in Jamaica,
according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
are expected in the south central and portions of the
southeast Caribbean through Wed night. Winds will
strengthen in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night and
continue through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N40W 27N50W
24N60W. The front is dissipating stationary from
24N60W to 23N77W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is from 20N
northward from 40W westward. Mostly fresh, to some
strong NE winds, are to the south of the line 31N23W
26N33W 21N47W 20N60W. An exception is the strong to
near gale-force winds that are from 27N northward from
23W eastward. Fresh winds are from the dissipating
stationary front to 26N from 68W westward. Moderate or
slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, to the
south and southeast of the line, from 31N23W, to 22N50W
and southward. Some areas of sea heights that range from
4 feet to 6 feet are elsewhere in this area. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge, that passes through 31N50W to 31N71W,
to a NE Florida 1021 mb high pressure center, is on the
northern side of the stationary front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure
center that is near 35N22W, to 31N33W 29N38W 23N49W,
to Hispaniola.

Moderate to fresh east winds across the Great Bahama Bank
and E of the Bahamas to 65W will diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds this evening. A weakening stationary front
extending from 25N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands
offshore waters will dissipate this evening. A cold front
will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tue. The front will
reach the NE Florida offshore waters Wed morning and
extend from near 31N68W to the northern Bahamas Thu
morning before weakening over the far eastern part of
the area Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will
precede and follow the front as it moves across the region.

$$
mt/al
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