[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 09N14W to
03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 00N46W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N
between 10W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of
04N between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1014
mb high centered near 25N85W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center. Fresh to locally strong winds are
west of the Yucatan peninsula, and gentle to moderate winds are
noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
waters through the week. Fresh winds will pulse over the Bay of
Campeche each night during the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to near the Gulf of
Honduras. Fresh to strong winds are noted off the coast of
Colombia and Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over
the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range
over the area of fresh to strong winds, 4-5 ft over the remainder
of the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate early
today. Fresh to strong winds offshore of Colombia will continue
through the rest of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front extends from near 31N64W to the southern
Bahamas, where it becomes stationary to central Cuba. Another
cold front extends from 31N68W to near 28N70W. Farther east, high
pressure is centered near 28N49W, with another stationary front
from 31N24W to 22N41W. Fresh to strong winds are found off the
coast of northern Florida. Gentle to moderate winds are in the
vicinity of the fronts N of 28N. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas of 7-9 ft prevail N of 28N between 35W and 80W, with seas of
4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, a dissipating cold front extends from
near 31N64W to the southern Bahamas, where it becomes stationary
to central Cuba. The front will dissipate today. Another cold
front extends from 31N68W to near 28N70W. This front will move
across the rest of the northern waters through Wed while
weakening. A couple of more cold fronts will move across the
northern waters through the rest of the forecast period while
weakening. The main impacts to winds and seas from these fronts is
expected to be N and NE of the Bahamas.

$$
AL
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