[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 02 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW
Senegal, to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W, to 01N34W,
to the Equator along 43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong: is within 510 nm to the east of the NE corner
of Brazil just to the east of French Guiana; within 620 nm of the
coast of Africa from 02N to 08N. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A 1014 mb
high pressure center is in the Straits of Florida. A 1012 mb high
pressure center is near 27N92W, about 180 nm to the SW of
SE Louisiana. Moderate to fresh winds cover much of the western
half of the area. Some strong NE winds are off the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Some strong SW winds are in the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of the Florida Big Bend.

A stationary front covers the inland areas/the coastal plains
from northern Florida, including in the Florida Panhandle, to east
Texas. Rainshowers are possible near the stationary front.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the western half
of the area, and they range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the eastern
half of the area.

Areas of smoke cover the NW Caribbean Sea from Cuba and Jamaica
and Honduras northwestward, and in Central America from the
northern half of Nicaragua to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the
week. Fresh winds will pulse over the Bay of Campeche each night
during the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the central Bahamas to central
Cuba, to 17N84W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, about
150 nm to the NE of the north central coast of Honduras.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either
side of the front. Gentle and variable winds are within 210 nm on
either side of the stationary front. Fresh to strong NE winds are
within 270 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Moderate
winds cover the rest of the areas that are from the Greater
Antilles southward. Gentle winds are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 2 feet near the central
coast of Panama, to 5 feet in the direction of NW Cuba. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from the coast of south
central Hispaniola to the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-third of
the area.

Areas of smoke cover the NW Caribbean Sea from Cuba and Jamaica
and Honduras northwestward, and in Central America from the
northern half of Nicaragua to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

A stationary front over the NW Caribbean will dissipate early
Tue. Fresh to strong winds offshore of Colombia will continue
through the rest of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One cold front is about 460 nm to the east of Florida. A second
cold front is about 220 nm to the east of the first cold front.
The second cold front reaches the central Bahamas. A stationary
front continues from the central Bahamas into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 20N northward between 40W and the second cold front.
Strong to near gale-force westerly winds are in the coastal waters
from 29N for Florida northward. Moderate W and SW winds are from
the second cold front northward. Gentle winds are elsewhere from
20N northward from 60W westward.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 29N53W. Fresh to strong
S winds are from 150 nm to 400 nm to the west of the 1022 mb high
pressure center.

A stationary front is along 31N25W 24N35W 19N48W. Rainshowers are
possible within 120 nm on either side of the front. Fresh NE winds
are from 17N to 25N between 39W and 54W, from 11N southward
between 45W and 54W, and within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of
the line 28N14W 17N31W, off the coast of Africa. Gentle and
moderate winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet within 210 nm of the
center in the E semicircle, of the 1022 mb high pressure center.
The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet from 28N northward
from 57W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet
in the rest of the area that is from 10N northward from 50W
westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 10N
southward between 40W and 60W. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 7 feet from 23N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean.

A cold front extends from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas, where
it becomes stationary to central Cuba. The front will gradually
weaken and dissipate on Tue. Another cold front extends from
31N70W to near the NW Bahamas. This front will move across the
rest of the northern waters through Wed while weakening. A couple
of more cold fronts will move across the area through the rest of
the forecast period while weakening. The main impacts to winds and
seas from these fronts is expected to be N and NE of the Bahamas.

$$
mt/al
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